Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's statements of 'cutting interest rates but not easing' directly churned the sentiment in the cryptocurrency circle into a mess — this morning, after opening the 4-hour K-line chart, BTC has been fluctuating around the 90,000 mark for nearly 12 hours, like a strong man pressed against a washboard, unable to stand up, yet afraid of catching a cold if he lies down.
Let me clarify the background of today's game for you: the Federal Reserve just cut by 25 basis points, and then Powell said 'it may not continue to cut next year,' this wave of 'hawkish rate cuts' directly shattered the market's 'easing expectations.' Yesterday afternoon, BTC dropped from 94,000 to 89,000, with 150,000 people liquidated 530 million, of which 75% were retail investors chasing high — I'm very familiar with this scene; every time the 'good news lands,' it’s the moment when the sickle is sharpened the brightest.
But the key today isn't about 'how much it has dropped', but 'who is buying the dip'. On-chain data just came out: in the past 24 hours, 8915 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, with Binance seeing a net outflow of 326 BTC. These coins didn't enter the secondary market and went entirely into cold wallets — no need to guess, it's definitely those whales holding thousands of coins. Looking over at the ETF side, BlackRock's IBIT bought 193 million against the trend yesterday, and the institutions are much faster in their buying actions around 89,000 - 90,000 than retail investors chasing the highs.
This is what I want to say the most today: the current 90,000 level is a 'shakeout pit' set by institutions for retail investors, but it is also an 'uphill slope' left for long-term capital. You see the RSI on the 4-hour chart has already dropped to 15.67, this value should have rebounded under normal circumstances, but today it's just grinding without rising — why? Institutions want to blow up those leveraged long positions that can't withstand the fluctuations; the 170 million BTC long positions that exploded yesterday have all gone into the whales' pockets. I reminded my followers a few days ago, 'Don't touch leverage over 5x', and this morning an old follower of mine who has been with me for three years said he cleared 80% of his contracts, now his spot cost is down to 88,000, that's what a smart person does.
Let’s talk about some details: today the trading volume during the European session directly collapsed by 68%, liquidity shrank to the size of a needle, indicating that foreign capital institutions are observing, but domestic big players are not idle — Bitfinex saw a net inflow of 360 BTC today, this money isn't for short-term speculation, but is planned for the end of the month’s CPI data. Another signal you need to pay attention to: the ETFs for SOL and XRP have absorbed 1.09 billion in the past two weeks, funds are flowing from BTC to altcoins, but whales are actually hoarding BTC, this is called 'retail investors chasing hot trends, institutions stealing the底牌'.
Finally, let me give you some straightforward advice: in today's market, don't chase if it breaks above 92,000, and don't panic if it drops below 89,000 — the whales' cost is around 88,000, and they are more afraid of it breaking down than you are. I increased my spot position by 20% today, just betting that the CPI data at the end of the month will give some good news; I only left 10% in short positions for pure black swan protection.
By the way, there will be a Grayscale holdings report released tomorrow at 8 AM, what do you think this time will it be an increase or a decrease? I bet on an increase — after all, institutions' money has always been quietly filling the car when retail investors shout 'the bear is coming'.
Twelve years in finance, an exclusive guide for pioneers in the crypto space: insight into the market, proceed steadily, pay attention to how the Celestial Master teaches you to steadily increase value; risks and opportunities coexist in investment, blind operations are a major taboo in the crypto world!
