Discipline is the real talisman.
I still remember the scene when I first entered the cryptocurrency world in 2013, when Bitcoin was just over 800 dollars, and the market was flooded with various so-called 'world-changing' altcoins. Twelve years have passed, and I have witnessed too many myths of overnight wealth, as well as more tragedies of losing everything.
Those who truly survive and live well have never relied on luck or insider information, but on a set of effective disciplines.
Just last week, I had tea with an old friend from Shanghai whom I've known for many years. This old friend has been immersed in the cryptocurrency world for twelve years, starting with a principal of over 300,000, and now his assets are close to nine figures. But surprisingly, he still lives in a regular apartment building and rides an electric bike to the vegetable market to bargain with vendors.
I asked him: 'With a fortune of nearly 100 million, why do you still live so simply?'
He smiled and said, 'The profits from trading cryptocurrencies come from the market, but the happiness in life comes from the warmth of human connection. Staying low-key in the market and maintaining a calm mind in life is the true way to longevity.'
From him, I summarized six rules that have benefited me greatly.
1. Sudden rises and slow declines are opportunities, not risks.
The market suddenly surges and then slowly retraces; this rhythm often makes beginners anxious, but it's an opportunity in the eyes of veterans. The main funds, after the surge, do not rush to dump but are willing to take time to slowly digest profits, which itself shows confidence in the future market.
I remember after the 'Black Thursday' in 2020, Bitcoin rebounded from its low and then entered a slow consolidation for several months. Many people chose to exit because they couldn't stand this 'boring' market, but they missed out on the subsequent main bullish wave.
The real risk is not a slow retracement but a continuous decline under shrinking transaction volume. When market activity decreases and main funds quietly exit, that's when you should be the most vigilant.
2. Sudden drops and stagnant rises are traps; don't rush to catch the bottom.
On the contrary, a sudden drop followed by a weak rebound is likely a sign that the main forces are quietly exiting. I have seen too many people blindly catch the bottom in such situations and end up buying at a half-mountain.
There is a rule in the cryptocurrency circle: 'The bottom is ground out, not guessed.' A single spike to the bottom is often unreliable; a solid bottom requires repeated testing and confirmation.
For example, after the LUNA crash in 2022, the market briefly rebounded but then tested the bottom again. Those who rushed to catch the bottom after the first sharp drop paid a heavy price. Those who patiently waited for the market emotions to stabilize before entering seized the real opportunity.
3. Increased volume at high levels is not necessarily a peak; declining volume is what is dangerous.
Traditional views hold that increased volume at high levels is a signal of a peak, but from my experience: increased volume at high levels is more about the turnover of chips, while declining volume is what truly deserves vigilance.
When the price shows increased volume at a high level, it indicates that a large number of buyers and sellers are reaching transactions at this position. If the price can stabilize afterward and even continue to rise, it shows that new funds have taken over profit orders, leaving room for future growth.
When the market shows a decline with shrinking volume, it means that both buyers and sellers are not interested in this price; lack of liquidity amplifies volatility. This is the signal that requires the most caution.
4. The bottom needs to be confirmed with repeated volume spikes; once is not enough.
A true bottom cannot be confirmed by a single volume spike; it requires repeated testing and confirmation. A single volume spike may be a trap, while multiple volume spikes indicate that main funds are continuously building positions.
Looking back at the bear market bottom from 2018 to 2020, Bitcoin experienced multiple volume fluctuations in the $3,000-$4,000 range before finally establishing the bottom zone. Those who jumped in with full positions at the first volume increase might be forced to exit in subsequent fluctuations.
Position management is crucial here: I usually build positions in three batches, entering a portion each time there is increased volume, leaving enough ammo to cope with uncertainty.
5. Emotions are more real than technical indicators.
I almost never look at those flashy technical indicators because the market is ultimately driven by human nature. Volume is the most direct and real reflection of market sentiment.
There is a characteristic in the cryptocurrency circle: good news leads to bad news, and bad news leads to good news. When the market overreacts to a certain positive event, it is often the time to exit; when bad news hits and the market panics, it may be an opportunity to position.
I remember after the FTX collapse in 2022, the whole internet was saying 'the cryptocurrency world is finished,' and Bitcoin fell to $15,000. Those who dared to position against the trend at that time later reaped rich rewards. Meanwhile, those dominated by fear fell before dawn.
6. The wisdom of 'no': do not become attached, do not be greedy, do not be afraid.
Over the years, my deepest realization is: 'No' is the hardest and most important. Those who can endure waiting in cash are the ones deserving of seizing major market movements.
The biggest enemy in the cryptocurrency world is not the manipulators or the market, but one's own inner demons. Greed makes people reluctant to exit when they should, fear makes them hesitate when they should enter, and impatience leads them to trade forcibly when there are no opportunities.
The rule I set for myself is: if losses exceed 20%, stop for a week; if profits exceed 50%, reduce positions by half; always maintain a calm mind.
It's not about making the most, but about living longer.
True wisdom lies outside the market.
My friend, a teacher from Shanghai, often says: 'Trading cryptocurrencies is like being a person; when your heart is stable, your hands can be steady.' He goes to the vegetable market every morning to stroll around, chat with vendors, and feel the breath of life.
'In the market, you face numbers and fluctuations; in the vegetable market, you face life and human nature. The latter can help you stay awake.'
He told me that when he feels led by market trends, he goes to the vegetable market to see those who bargain seriously for a few dollars, to see those vendors who wake up early and work hard. 'That kind of seriousness and dedication to life can help you regain your original intention better than any technical analysis.'
After twelve years in the cryptocurrency world, I increasingly agree with this viewpoint: behind successful investments are mature minds and a deep understanding of life. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are those capable of seizing opportunities and living to the next opportunity.
Remember, discipline is not a constraint but true freedom. This is true in the cryptocurrency world and in life.
Surviving allows you to wait for opportunities; holding on allows you to laugh in the end.
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