Surviving in the crypto world is not about who is smarter, but about who is more patient.
I sat in front of the screen, watching Bitcoin surge by another 10% in an instant, and the community was in an uproar. Some shared profit screenshots, others cheered 'the bull market is here', while I closed the trading interface. This isn't the first time I've missed an opportunity, nor will it be the last.
Eight years ago, when I first entered the crypto world, like most people, I wanted to seize every fluctuation. Trading dozens of times a day and staying up late to watch the market became routine. What was the result? My account balance was like a roller coaster, earning quickly but losing even faster.
It wasn't until later that I realized: what truly allowed my assets to grow steadily to eight figures was not how many technical indicators I knew, but my willingness to 'do nothing'. Today, I will share my insights from the past eight years with everyone.
1 The biggest trap in the cryptocurrency world: action bias
Have you ever noticed that when we don't trade, we always feel like we're missing out on opportunities? This mindset is called 'action bias'—believing that doing something is always better than doing nothing.
In traditional industries, hard work can lead to wealth. But in the cryptocurrency world, overworking may lead to bankruptcy. I've seen too many people trading frequently every day, chasing highs and selling lows, only to find that they can't even recover the transaction fees. Data shows that 90% of losses in the cryptocurrency world come from overtrading.
Why do we feel this way? Because human nature finds it hard to accept 'having nothing to do'. The cryptocurrency market operates 24 hours a day, and we always feel the need to participate, or we’ll miss the 'get-rich-quick opportunity'.
But the truth is: the market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is capital. Once I understood this, I set a firm rule for myself: only trade in three types of market conditions, and let all others pass.
2 My three 'must-do' market conditions
1. Confirmation on pullbacks after breakouts
After the market is pulled up, there will always be a pullback. As long as the structure is intact, volume is contracting, and support holds steady, that is the golden position.
When others chase the highs, I hold back and only act after confirming a pullback. The core of this strategy is 'trend + confirmation'; I don’t eat the fish head or tail, only the most succulent part of the fish body.
In specific operations, I will patiently wait for the price to break through a key resistance level with increased volume, then wait for it to pull back to the original resistance level (which has now become support). When the pullback occurs with shrinking volume and a stop-loss signal appears (such as a small doji or hammer), I will consider entering the market.
Set stop-loss just below the support level, with relatively small stop-loss space but large profit space. This type of market condition has a high win rate because it confirms the validity of the trend.
2. 'False drop trap' at the bottom of the consolidation
During sideways consolidation, if a bearish candle suddenly breaks through support, retail investors panic and flee, but the price quickly returns to the original range—this is the 'fake line' signal I wait for.
The cryptocurrency market experiences volatile conditions about 70% of the time.
But most people lose money in volatile markets because they are always chasing highs and lows before breakouts.
I particularly like this kind of 'false breakthrough' market condition because it exposes the intentions of the main players: acquiring cheap chips by creating panic. When the price quickly returns to the range, it indicates that the previous decline was a 'trap', and the market is likely to move in the opposite direction afterward.
The key is to identify real and fake breakouts. I usually combine volume analysis: true breakouts are often accompanied by sustained volume increase, while false breakouts exhibit insufficient volume and quickly reverse.
3. Second momentum after a market washout in a trend
The market has been moving for a while, starting to lure out weak hands and consolidate, but does not break the key level. As long as it can hold steady at support and coupled with a short-term breakout, I will add to my position.
This type of market condition is a 'halftime' in the trend, aimed at washing out weak holders. The characteristics are: the price fluctuates near key support levels, volume gradually decreases, but it never effectively breaks below support.
When the washout ends and the price again increases in volume, that's the ideal entry point. Because the previous trend has been established, this second momentum is often more stable than the first wave.
If the position for adding is correct, even if I'm wrong, I can still escape—that's the biggest advantage of this market condition. The risk is controllable, and the returns are considerable.
3 Why these three types of market conditions?
You might ask: why just these three? The answer is simple: because they all adhere to the principles of 'high win rate, high risk-reward ratio'.
They all have clear entry signals: not vague feelings, but specific price action confirmations.
There are reasonable stop-loss positions: small stop-loss space but large profit space.
All conform to the larger trend: no matter what type, I only engage in trend-following trades, never against the trend.
More importantly, these three types of market conditions give me the most important thing—initiative. I am not passively following the market; instead, I actively choose the battlefield that suits me.
4 How to identify your own 'three types of market conditions'
My three models may not suit you, as everyone’s risk tolerance, time investment, and personality are different. But the process of finding your own 'three types of market conditions' is similar:
Step One: Review your trading records
Take out your past trading records and identify the most profitable trades. What commonalities do they have? What type of market? What time frame? What indicator signals?
Step Two: Summarize your trading personality
Are you an impatient person or a patient one? Is short-term trading suitable for you or long-term? Do you prefer high-risk, high-reward or stable returns? The answers will determine which market conditions you should focus on.
Step Three: Small-scale trial and error, constantly improving
Select 2-3 types of market conditions that you think are most suitable, and use small amounts of capital for practical verification. Record the details of each trade and continuously refine your criteria.
Step Four: Develop the habit of 'doing nothing'
Lastly, and most importantly: except for the three types of market conditions you are sure of, keep your position empty at all other times. This is difficult and requires strong self-discipline, but it is the only way to achieve stable profits.
5 The core secret of stable profit makers in the cryptocurrency world
Having been in the cryptocurrency world for a long time, I know many people who have truly achieved stable profits. I found they all have one thing in common: they all have clear trading boundaries.
Some only trade during the six months before and after Bitcoin halving; some only trade Ethereum's wave corrections; some only play stablecoin arbitrage. Their methods vary, but the core is the same: repeat operations in familiar fields.
And those who play contracts today, chase altcoins tomorrow, and listen to news the day after, have mostly been eliminated by the market.
After eight years, my biggest realization is: the cryptocurrency world is not a casino, but a place for cognitive monetization. Every penny you earn is a realization of your understanding of the market; every penny you lose is a cost of cognitive defects.
Do less, it's not laziness, but strategy. Focusing your limited energy on high-value opportunities allows you to go further and retain your money.
In the current market, there is more noise than opportunity. Various 'explosive coins' and 'hundred-fold myths' emerge endlessly, but the profits that can actually be pocketed are few and far between.
If you can calm down, find the three types of market conditions that suit you, and then wait patiently like a hunter, you'll find that making money in the cryptocurrency world is not that difficult; the hard part is overcoming the impulse to always do something.
Remember: in this market where most people are overtrading, your restraint itself is an advantage.
Sometimes, the best trade is not to trade
Follow Xiang Ge, and let him help you understand more firsthand information and precise points of cryptocurrency knowledge, becoming your navigation in the cryptocurrency world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
