because the price is moving without a clear direction. Still, there are signs that a green light moment may be close. The recent rate cut from the Federal Reserve did not move Bitcoin in a big way. The price is still moving in a narrow range. Even so, several signals are showing fresh strength for the bulls.
On the daily chart the picture has not changed much since the Fed meeting. Bitcoin is still inside a small rising channel, but this channel is part of a bigger downtrend. Traders who study charts say the next steps are simple. If Bitcoin breaks above the bearish trendline, then the downtrend from the record high may be over. If Bitcoin drops below the small rising channel, then the bigger downtrend is still in control, and more losses can come. So now the market waits for a clear move.
Right now the bull story looks a bit stronger. The MACD histogram with settings that look at the medium and long term is close to moving above zero. When this happens, it often points to new strength, and buyers may start to take control. At the same time, the dollar index has turned weak after the Fed meeting. A weak dollar is usually good for assets that carry risk like Bitcoin. The DXY is now at a level not seen since mid-October. The MACD histogram for the dollar has also moved into the negative side. This shows a change in momentum that can support Bitcoin.
The Nasdaq has also found support after a drop in November. It is now trading above the simple moving averages of 50, 100, and 200 days. This is often viewed as a positive signal for the crypto market because traders see strength in tech stocks as a sign that risk-taking is safe again. Bitcoin sellers also look tired. Even with news about issues in the United States Senate related to crypto rules, the price is holding steady. This shows that sellers are losing force.
If Bitcoin breaks out, then several levels between 97000 and 108000 will be important. These levels are linked with key moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud. Traders will watch these levels closely as the price moves.
Still, there is one worry. ETF flows are not strong. For the past month there has not been a single day with net inflows above five hundred million dollars. The total net inflow since late November is only two hundred nineteen million dollars. This is very small when we look at the large outflows seen in October and early November. This weak flow shows that big buyers are still waiting.
The link between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq also shows an uneven pattern. When the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin often drops faster. But when the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin only moves up a little. This means the link is not working in favor of Bitcoin bulls.
So we cannot fully ignore the bear case. If the price falls below the small rising channel, then support near eighty thousand comes into view. This would show that sellers are still here and the downtrend is not finished.
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