Who would have thought that ETH, which was praised at the beginning of the year, would actually plummet by 45% in the first quarter? Many retail investors panicked and sold at a loss during the pullback, unaware that whales had quietly started buying! Just last week, a large investor purchased 18,345 ETH from BitGo, worth as much as 55 million dollars. This action directly revealed the true valuation of ETH. As a seasoned crypto analyst, I found through deep analysis of on-chain data that the pullback of ETH is nearing its end, with two key signals indicating that a rebound is about to begin. Today's article will provide a detailed breakdown.
First, let's sort out the recent trend of ETH: In the first quarter of 2025, ETH experienced a significant 45% correction, dropping directly from a high point to around $1400, with the market feeling quite pessimistic; however, entering the second quarter, ETH began to rebound, and as of December 11, the price had risen to $3589. Although there remains a gap from the historical high, it has increased by 156% from the low point of the first quarter. Many people feel that this is just a normal rebound, but in my view, this is the value return of ETH after being undervalued, and the bottom-fishing actions of the whales further confirm this.
The first key signal: The continued accumulation by whales. In addition to the previously mentioned $55 million bottom fishing, data shows that the number of accounts holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH has increased by 160 over the past three months, with a total holding of 2.3 million ETH, corresponding to a market value of over $8.2 billion. More importantly, the accumulation by these whales is not short-term speculation but a long-term layout. According to on-chain data tracking, over 80% of the accounts in these accumulating whale accounts have held their positions for more than six months, belonging to typical long-term value investors. In my view, whales, as the group that understands the market best, their continued accumulation indicates that the current price of ETH is below its true value and has strong investment appeal. In contrast, during the ETH crash in 2022, whales not only did not accumulate but instead continuously reduced their positions, which is the core difference between this correction and the previous bear market.
The second key signal: The continued prosperity of the ETH ecosystem. Although the price of ETH has experienced a significant correction, on-chain activity has not decreased; instead, it has shown a growing trend. As of December 4, the ETH network added 190,000 wallets in one day, and the trading volume of Layer 2 networks reached a historical high, while average fees remained at a cyclically low level. This is thanks to the introduction of EIP-4844 (the 'blob fee' mechanism), which has significantly reduced data storage costs and improved the scalability of the ETH network. Currently, the locked value of DeFi protocols within the ETH ecosystem has surpassed $500 billion, NFT trading volume has increased by 30% compared to the same period last year, and AI × blockchain projects are emerging one after another. In my view, the prosperity of the ecosystem is the core support for asset prices; as long as the ETH ecosystem continues to develop, its price will inevitably return to a reasonable valuation. Compared to BTC, while BTC has a stronger value storage attribute, ETH's ecological innovation attributes are more imaginative in the long term, which is also an important reason why whales choose to bottom fish ETH.
Some friends may ask, since ETH is undervalued, why was there a significant correction before? In my view, there are mainly two reasons: First, the impact of macroeconomic factors; the Federal Reserve's delayed interest rate cut cycle has led to the repricing of risk assets, with ETH being high-volatility assets bearing the brunt; Second, the short-term rotation of capital; a large amount of capital flowed into BTC ETFs in the first quarter of this year, moving away from altcoins and assets like ETH, resulting in a passive correction of ETH. However, from the current situation, both factors have shown positive changes: the Federal Reserve has started the interest rate cut cycle, and the preference for risk assets is recovering; the inflow of BTC ETF funds has slowed down, and capital has begun to rotate towards quality assets like ETH.
Based on the above analysis, here are three operational suggestions for ETH: First, for retail investors who have already cut losses, do not blindly chase high prices; wait for ETH to pull back to around $3400 and gradually build positions. This level is an important support for this rise and also one of the main accumulation ranges for the whales; Second, for retail investors who are already holding, they can hold firmly, with a stop-loss set at $3200. If it breaks below this level, it indicates insufficient capital support, and risks need to be avoided in a timely manner; Third, for medium to long-term investors, they can add positions on dips while paying attention to quality projects in the ETH ecosystem, such as Layer 2 networks Base, Mantle, and AI × blockchain track Virtuals Protocol, etc. These projects will benefit from the ecosystem explosion.
Finally, I remind everyone: The crypto market is highly volatile. Even if ETH has strong investment value, do not invest all your funds in it; make sure to do asset allocation. At the same time, closely monitor macroeconomic policies and regulatory dynamics, as these factors will still have a significant impact on ETH prices. If you want real-time tracking of quality projects in the ETH ecosystem or need personalized position allocation suggestions, follow me @链上标哥 so you don't get lost! I will continue to share exclusive analysis and practical strategies. Remember, in the crypto market, when others are fearful, I am greedy; the whales have already acted, what are you waiting for?
