Bitcoin's growth history displays remarkable patterns that analysts frequently use to predict future trends. Recently, Fidelity's Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer shared a new analysis based on Bitcoin's wave development model.
While experts remain optimistic for the coming year, they are still behaving cautiously in their predictions.
How Strong is Bitcoin's Sixth Growth Wave?
The latest report presented by Jurrien Timmer emphasized that according to Bitcoin's wave development model, each new growth cycle expands with a smaller momentum but lasts longer.
Timmer predicted that Bitcoin is currently in its fifth wave, based on historical data since 2010. This cycle started from a bottom level of $16,603 in 2022, and the model predicts a peak around $151,360.
‘It's hard to understand whether a new crypto winter is coming in real time. However, the developing wave structure of Bitcoin's maturing network curve suggests that the recent bull market (starting around $16,000 in 2022) appears quite mature,’ said Jurrien Timmer.
In the short term, it maintains optimism about Bitcoin's year-end performance. Investor sentiment has strengthened thanks to the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy easing.
In the long term, it pointed to a sixth growth wave. The model uses linear projections created from data collected from the previous five waves.
According to this model, Bitcoin’s ‘Descending Slope’ (in pink) chart indicates the following signals:
4th Wave: BTC rose 20 times from bottom to peak in 153 weeks.
5th Wave (ongoing): BTC is expected to grow approximately 9 times in 160 weeks.
6th Wave (upcoming): BTC could show about a 5 times increase in 168 weeks.
However, the model does not definitively determine where a clear bottom level that will initiate the sixth wave will be. Timmer indicated that the approximately $80,554 level at the bottom of the current cycle could be significant support.
These projections indicate that since Bitcoin has not yet completed the fifth wave, there could be a positive atmosphere at the beginning of 2026.
Axis Co-Founder and COO Jimmy Xue also painted a similar picture in his forecast shared with BeInCrypto. He expects the effects of the Fed's interest rate cuts to be seen in the short term.
Speaking to BeInCrypto, Jimmy Xue said, ‘Right now we expect the market to enter a stable, horizontal process rather than a sudden V-shaped bounce. The market needs time to absorb the recent volatility. However, in the medium term, the upward trend remains intact with the Fed's interest rate cuts and the global liquidity and institutional positions being readjusted in the first quarter of 2026.’
However, some observations highlight the possibility of a more pessimistic year. The year 2026 will be a midterm election year in the U.S. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has generally performed poorly in such years, with losses ranging from 60% to 75%.
These conflicting analyses signal a turbulent process for investors in 2026. Especially institutional investors have continued to accumulate BTC over the last two years after Bitcoin ETFs were approved.
