Today we are going to discuss one of the most mystical and frustrating phenomena in the cryptocurrency world: why do I always experience 'buying leads to price drops and selling leads to price increases'? Moreover, the accuracy is high enough that I could set up a stall and tell fortunes. Do you often feel that the market is just watching the little money in your pocket and opposing you specifically?
I have a friend, we call him 'the Anti-Indicator King'. In 2021, he bought Dogecoin, and it dropped 30% as soon as he bought it; he couldn't stand the loss, and a week later, Dogecoin rose by 300%. He bought a certain NFT, and after purchasing it at the floor price, it halved in value; he sold at a loss, and a month later, that series increased fivefold. The most absurd part is that he finally concluded: 'It's not my problem; my account is being monitored by the market makers.'
I felt both amused and helpless after listening. But when I think about it, who hasn't experienced such moments of 'being targeted by the market'? Today, let's unravel the truth behind this 'curse'.
One, why do you have the illusion of being 'targeted'?
Truth 1: You only remember the moments of 'pain'
This is a typical case of 'selective memory'. You may have traded 100 times, among which 30 times 'buying led to drops', 20 times 'selling led to rises', and the remaining 50 times were normal. But you will remember those 50 times of feeling 'targeted' because the emotional impact they brought (regret, anger) is stronger. The brain is a drama queen, especially good at amplifying pain and ignoring the mundane.
Truth 2: You always operate at 'emotional extremes'.
Observe carefully, when do you usually buy? Most likely: when prices are continuously rising, you feel FOMO (fear of missing out). When do you sell? When prices are continuously dropping, you panic. The market's short-term trend is precisely designed to treat all kinds of emotional operations. When most people FOMO, the short-term may be peaking; when most people panic, the short-term may be bottoming out. You are not 'targeted', you are 'going with the crowd' and then getting harvested.
Truth 3: Your 'holding cost' affects your perception.
Assuming Bitcoin is at 50,000, you bought it. It rose to 55,000, you didn’t sell. It fell back to 50,000, you still didn’t sell. It dropped to 45,000, you panicked and sold. Then it rose back to 50,000. You’ll feel 'I sell and it goes up'. But from another perspective: from 55,000 to 50,000, you rode the roller coaster without selling; from 45,000 to 50,000, you didn’t participate. You just made an emotional decision at an inappropriate time.
Two, my 'reverse指' operating system.
After being 'educated' by the market multiple times, I established a system specifically to combat this 'curse':
Layer one: Before buying, first ask yourself three 'soul-searching questions'.
Why should I buy now? Is it because I see some objective signal (like breaking key levels, reaching value ranges), or simply because 'it's gone up a lot and I'm afraid of missing out'?
If it drops 10% immediately after buying, what should I do? Is it to stop loss, to add to my position, or to play dead? What’s the plan?
What is my goal? Is it short-term trading, or long-term holding? What is my target price?
These three questions can filter out at least 70% of impulsive buying.
Layer two: Use 'conditional orders' instead of 'manual operations'.
This is one of the best decisions I've made. I no longer manually click 'buy' or 'sell', but set conditional orders in advance:
Drop to XX price level, buy X%
Rise to XX price level, sell X%
Drop below XX price level, stop loss
Let the cold, hard machine execute, avoiding the hot, emotional responses. From now on, I no longer 'buy and it drops', because my buying price is set calmly in advance; I also no longer 'sell and it rises', because my selling/stop-loss points are also thought out in advance.
Layer three: Establish an 'observation position' system
For coins I want to buy but fear 'buying leads to drops', I first establish an 'observation position' (not exceeding 1% of total funds). After buying, I will have three feelings:
Bought and it went up, feels good → indicates the logic may be correct, but don't rush to add to your position
Bought and it dropped, but not by much → Observe to see if it triggers the conditions to add to my position
Bought and it crashed → Relieved that 'I only bought 1%', then reflect on whether the buying logic was wrong.
Use a very small position to 'experiment', the cost is low, but the rewards are great.
Three, three practical tips to break the curse.
Tip 1: Do the opposite of 'emotion', do in accordance with 'trend'
When a certain coin continuously skyrockets, and the community is in a frenzy, with everyone shouting 'it's about to take off', do not chase the price. Wait for a pullback, wait for the hype to cool down a bit.
When a certain coin continuously drops, and the community is silent, with everyone cursing 'shitcoin', do not cut your losses. At least wait for a rebound.
But this does not mean to blindly go against the trend. You should find buy points during uptrends and sell points during downtrends. The opposite is emotion, the same is trend.
Tip 2: Batch, batch, and batch again.
This is the cure for the 'buying leads to drops' phobia. Focus on a coin:
First batch (30%): Buy when breaking key levels
Second batch (40%): Buy when the pullback confirms support
Third batch (30%): Buy after the trend is completely established
This way, even if you buy and it drops, you still have money to average down; even if you buy and it rises, you still have a position.
Tip 3: Forget your 'cost price'.
This is the most counterintuitive and the most important lesson. Your buying and selling decisions should not be based on 'how much I bought it for', but rather on 'can it still rise now' or 'will it continue to drop'.
If you bought Bitcoin at 50,000 and it's now at 45,000, but the trend has deteriorated, you should cut your losses.
If you bought Bitcoin at 50,000 and it's now at 55,000, but there are signs of a peak, you should take profits.
The market will not let you make money just because your 'cost is high', nor will it prevent you from losing money just because your 'cost is low'.
Four, an emergency plan for when you feel 'targeted again'
Next time you feel 'buying leads to drops', do these three things:
Close the software, leave the computer/mobile phone for at least 2 hours. Physically isolate, cut off emotions.
After 2 hours, calmly analyze: Is the buying logic wrong, or is it the market's short-term fluctuations?
Execute according to the plan: If it hasn't reached the stop-loss level, hold; if it has, execute decisively. Don't 'wait and see'.
Five, mindset adjustment: Accept that 'it's impossible to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest'.
This is the ultimate mindset. You must accept from the bottom of your heart:
You will definitely buy at local highs.
You will definitely sell at local lows.
This is normal, this is part of trading.
Your goal is not 'perfection', but 'overall profit'. As long as your system is profitable in the long run, a few instances of 'buying leading to drops' are not a big deal.
I now rarely feel 'targeted by the market'. It's not because my skills have improved dramatically, but because:
I have a system, I operate according to the system, I accept both right and wrong.
I build positions in batches, my mindset is very stable.
I used conditional orders, buying and selling points are set calmly in advance.
I accept imperfection, and accepting 'buy high, sell low' is the norm.
When you no longer pursue 'precision timing', the market becomes gentler towards you. The curse of 'buying leads to drops, selling leads to rises' traps not your account, but your mindset. Break it by establishing a system, controlling emotions, and accepting imperfection.
If you are often troubled by this 'curse', I hope this article can give you some ideas for breaking it. Follow me @币圈罗盘 In the next article, we will discuss (the art of stop-loss: how to gracefully 'admit wrong').
Remember, in the cryptocurrency circle, you are not fighting against the big players, you are fighting against your own inner demons. Win against the inner demons, and you win the market. #加密市场反弹 $ETH
