For investors with a principal of no more than 200,000, the ability to control oneself and patiently wait for a major upward trend is the first threshold to achieving a qualitative change in the account. The cryptocurrency market trades 24/7, and opportunities seem countless, but there may only be two or three truly suitable opportunities for small capital in a year. A major upward trend is a phase where prices rise rapidly in a short period, and capturing it could yield a 50% return or even double the investment. However, the challenge lies in how to identify signals before the market starts and how to overcome the temptation brought by daily fluctuations.
Identifying the leading indicators of a major upward trend is not a difficult task. Based on practical experience, a major upward trend typically exhibits three technical characteristics before it starts: first, the price breaks through key resistance levels, such as previous highs within the last six months; second, trading volume continues to expand, at least 2-3 times the average trading volume in the previous period, indicating new capital entering the market; third, the moving average system shows a bullish arrangement, especially when the 20-day moving average transitions from flat to upward, providing support for the price. For example, the major upward trend of SOL starting from $20 in 2024 occurred after a prolonged consolidation, with a sharp increase in trading volume, accompanied by a weekly MACD golden cross signal.
But for small capital players, the biggest enemy is not finding opportunities, but losing principal due to frequent trading before opportunities arise. The cryptocurrency market is mostly in a state of fluctuation or no trend, and if one chases trends every day, entering on golden crosses and exiting on death crosses, not only are the transaction fees high, but one may also lose direction amidst market noise. Truly mature traders understand that holding cash and observing in uncertain market conditions is a strategy in itself. A trader who grew from 30,000 to 50 million shared that approximately 70% of his time in a year was spent in cash or extremely light positions, only heavily participating when high-certainty opportunities arise.
So, how can we practice the philosophy of "catching a major uptrend once a year"? This requires a systematic waiting strategy. First, divide the funds into two parts: 70% as "major uptrend sniper funds" that are not used regularly; and 30% as "trial and error funds" to keep market sensitivity during a consolidating market. Secondly, establish your own "major uptrend observation list", focusing only on the top 20 mainstream coins by market capitalization and 1-2 leading coins in strong sectors, since these coins have large capital capacity and more sustainable trends. Finally, set clear entry criteria, such as only considering entering when "the weekly MACD golden cross coincides with the daily breakout of the 20-day moving average and the trading volume increases by 3 times".
In practice, patience is reflected not only in waiting for buying opportunities but also during the holding phase. Major uptrends often involve washout actions; if one exits early due to short-term fluctuations, they will miss the main gains. Setting a dynamic profit-taking strategy can effectively address this issue, such as firmly holding when the price operates above the 20-day moving average, and taking profits in batches once it falls below the moving average. The core of this rule lies in recognizing that the most profitable opportunities in the cryptocurrency market often require the longest waiting time, and for small capital, protecting the principal itself is the most important investment strategy.
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