According to the latest data released regarding the federal budget (week ending December 10, 2025):
The observed figure (Reserve Bank Credit): recorded approximately $6.49 trillion (exactly 6,490,369 million).
Movement: decreased by about $17 billion from the previous week.
(Scenarios):
Based on the numbers I added:
Current situation: we are exactly at the red line or the dividing line between "yellow" and "red".
The figure 6.49T is the "edge of the cliff" according to the scenario whose numbers I wrote above. Since the federal has withdrawn liquidity (not injected liquidity) and the budget has decreased, this sends a negative signal (downward trend) more than it is positive. We broke the barrier of 6.50T and dropped to 6.49T.
My advice (to be clear):
The market is currently in a state of "watchful waiting". The federal is still withdrawing liquidity (Quantitative Tightening) and has not opened the faucet like everyone is waiting for, and this is definitely natural because they need time to start implementing quantitative easing and need time to notice its impact on the markets.
Trading cautiously currently
Because we are in a "bone-breaking" situation at these levels.
