Bitcoin's growth history shows patterns that analysts often use to predict future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, head of Global Macro at Fidelity, presented a new analysis based on Bitcoin's developmental wave model.
Experts remain optimistic about next year, but they still present their forecasts with caution.
How strong is Bitcoin's sixth growth wave?
In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer highlights that Bitcoin's wave development model shows that each new growth cycle becomes smaller but lasts longer.
Using historical data from 2010, Timmer argues that Bitcoin is currently in its fifth wave. The cycle began at the bottom in 2022 at 16,603 USD and could reach a peak around 151,360 USD.
“It is difficult to know in real time if a new winter is on the way. But the changing wave structure in Bitcoin's network development shows that the latest bull market (from around 16,000 USD in 2022) looks quite mature,” said Jurrien Timmer.
In the short term, he is optimistic about the Bitcoin price at the end of the year. Investor sentiment has improved thanks to the Federal Reserve's easing of monetary policy.
In the long term, he suggests a sixth growth wave. The model uses linear forecasts based on data from the last five waves.
According to this model, Bitcoin's Descending Slope chart (in pink) indicates that:
Wave 4: BTC grew 20 times over 153 weeks from bottom to top.
Wave 5 (ongoing): BTC can grow 9 times over 160 weeks.
Wave 6 (upcoming): BTC can grow approximately 5 times over 168 weeks.
But the model does not exactly show where the bottom before wave 6 will be. Timmer suggests a possible support level at the current cycle's floor around 80,554 USD.
These forecasts point to a fairly positive start to 2026, as Bitcoin has not yet completed its fifth wave.
Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder of Axis, shares a similar view with BeInCrypto. He expects the effects of the Fed's interest rate cuts to be felt soon.
“We lean towards a period of stabilization and sideways movements rather than an immediate V-shaped recovery. The market needs time to absorb the latest volatility. However, the outlook for Q1 2026 remains positive as the interest rate cuts eventually affect global liquidity and institutional allocations begin anew in January,” said Jimmy Xue to BeInCrypto.
Some observations still indicate a more pessimistic scenario. The year 2026 is an election year. Previous results show that Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in such years, with declines between 60% and 75%.
These various analyses indicate an exciting 2026 for investors. In particular, institutional investors have continued to buy BTC over the past two years since Bitcoin ETF was approved.
