The growth history of Bitcoin shows important patterns that analysts often use to predict future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, published a recent analysis based on the wave development model of Bitcoin.
Experts remain optimistic about the next year but also express their views with caution.
How strong is the sixth growth wave of Bitcoin?
In the latest report, Jurrien Timmer emphasized that the wave model of Bitcoin shows that each new growth cycle will expand with a smaller scale but take longer.
Referring to data since 2010, Timmer indicates that Bitcoin is in the fifth wave, which started at the low of 16,603 USD in 2022 and could reach a target peak of approximately 151,360 USD.
It's hard to tell in real-time whether a new winter is coming, but the changing wave structure of the Bitcoin network curve that has started to grow indicates that the recent bull market (from around 16,000 USD in 2022) looks quite mature already, Jurrien Timmer said.
In the short term, he remains positive about Bitcoin's performance at the end of the year. Investor sentiment has improved as the Federal Reserve has taken a more relaxed stance on monetary policy.
In the long term, he hints at the sixth growth wave, as this model uses linear projections derived from the previous 5 waves.
According to this model, the Descending Slope graph of Bitcoin (pink) indicates that
Wave 4: BTC grew 20 times over a period of 153 weeks from the bottom to the top.
Wave 5 (ongoing): BTC could grow 9 times in 160 weeks.
Wave 6 (awaiting): BTC could grow about 5 times in 168 weeks.
However, this model has not yet defined a clear bottom, which would be the start of the sixth wave. Timmer has suggested a potential support level at the base of the current cycle near USD 80,554.
These forecasts indicate a relatively good start for 2026 as Bitcoin has not yet completed the fifth wave.
Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder of Axis, shared a similar view with BeInCrypto, predicting that the impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts will start to show soon.
we are likely entering a period of consolidation and oscillation rather than immediately recovering in a V-shape. The market needs time to absorb the volatility of the past. However, the medium-term outlook remains bullish for the first quarter of 2026 as interest rate cuts will enter a global liquidity cycle, and institutional asset allocations will be reset in January, Jimmy Xue told BeInCrypto.
But there are still some observations pointing towards a more negative trend. 2026 is a midterm election year. Historical performance shows that Bitcoin often performs poorly in midterm election years, with declines of between 60% to 75%.
However, differing analyses suggest that 2026 could be a challenging year for investors. Institutional investors, in particular, continue to accumulate BTC over the past 2 years since Bitcoin ETFs were approved.
