Volume does not lie, patience is the best way to make money.
The story of Old Zhao next door is widely circulated in the circle: 100,000 turns into millions, five property certificates, the ATM works for him all year round without rest. When I personally visited him, I found his trading app as clean as a novice's software, without complex indicators, no fancy prompts, just simple candlestick and volume charts.
When asked about his secret, he smiled and said: “I’m dumb, I can only recite rhymes.”
The chart is meant to be viewed by people, but the volume is what speaks to the heart.
“Sharp rises and slow declines → The main force is eating.” Old Zhao drew lines on the table with his chopsticks dipped in wine, “The big bullish candle followed by small bearish and bullish candles, that's the whale savoring the flavor, the tablecloth isn't even laid out yet, why are you in such a hurry?”
In 2018, he relied on this principle to pick up bargains in the process of Bitcoin declining from $6000 to $3000, buying in batches. Most people were in a panic selling mood, but he saw the volume telling him: big funds were quietly building positions.
"A sharp drop with weak rebounds → the main force is urinating." Old Zhao laughed heartily, "A flash crash of 15%, and the rebound is less than 3%, which means funds are fleeing. At this time, buying the dip is like catching urine with bare hands; the smell is too strong." He recalled the night of March 12, 2020, when the cryptocurrency market crashed by 50%. Many were eager to buy the dip, but he simply turned off his computer and walked the dog. By the time he returned, the market had already cooled down, while he preserved his capital.
Don't get excited when there's high volume at the top; low volume is the real alarm.
"A large volume with an upper shadow is the most deceptive." Old Zhao admitted he had also been deceived by this pattern. Later he understood: when the volume is high every day, the K-line continues to party; when one day it suddenly goes mute, that's the real end of the party.
He took out his phone and pointed to the recent market: "You see, the biggest difference between the top and bottom is—at the top, it's low volume at the peak, and at the bottom, it's high volume at the bottom." This observation aligns with the cyclical nature of the market: the true end of a bull market is often not a sudden crash, but a gradual decrease in volume until liquidity dries up.
There's a trick to volume at the bottom; one time isn't enough, look for continuity.
"A single large volume at the bottom = a trap, continuous large volume = a certificate." Old Zhao shared his key experience. A sudden huge volume after a crash? Hold on! Once is like blind dating; continuous is true love.
At the end of 2018, he waited for two instances of high volume before entering the market in batches. At that time, the market was in extreme panic, but he saw funds quietly accumulating. Continuous high volume indicated sustained inflow of funds, which is the real bottom signal.
The most difficult realm: no coins in hand, no ghosts in the heart.
What I admire most about Old Zhao is his composure. He had the longest empty position for 278 days, drinking tea, walking the dog, and correcting homework. Others laughed at him for missing out; he laughed at others for being bald. "Only if you can be empty can you sit at the main table."
In the cryptocurrency market, being able to resist FOMO (fear of missing out) is the key to success. Many people haven't failed to make money; rather, they can't endure the loneliness of being out of the market, ultimately giving profits back to the market.
My practice: simplicity is the hard truth.
Inspired by Old Zhao, I also wrote those catchy phrases on sticky notes and pasted them on the wall:
Slow to rise, fast to run when it falls.
High volume, fun; low volume, decline.
One time volume, don't fall in love recklessly.
Continuous volume, opening positions again
The chart deceives, the volume reveals the heart.
With no coins, one can win the most.
After sticking to it for three months, I surprisingly recovered 20%. More importantly, I no longer anxiously stared at the market every day and had more time to study the fundamentals of projects and macro trends.
Old Zhao's "stupid" method reveals the essential law of the cryptocurrency market: all price fluctuations are ultimately reflected through volume, and successful investment requires strong emotional management skills.
In this complex market, perhaps we all need a bit of Old Zhao's "stupidity"—not to be dazzled by intricate technical indicators, not to be swayed by the noise on social media, focus on the most basic relationship between volume and price, and maintain an extraordinary level of patience.
After all, making money is the hard truth, isn't it?
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