I still remember when I first entered the market with 5,000 U, unable to distinguish between Bitcoin and Ethereum. On the night of the LUNA crash, I stubbornly held on and didn’t cut my losses, watching tens of thousands in principal evaporate by ninety percent, staring at the ceiling in the dark until dawn. Now, being able to survive and achieve stable profits relies entirely on the lessons learned through real money. Today, I won't talk about abstract concepts, but will share practical insights that you can immediately apply.
1. The principal is your oxygen mask; if it breaks, you will die.
Back when LUNA plummeted, I stubbornly believed that 'one day it will rise again.' As a result, my 100,000 principal shrank to only a few thousand. This painful lesson made me realize: the principal is not a bet; it is your capital for survival.
Idle cash investment: If you have 100,000 savings, move a maximum of 20,000; with a monthly salary of 8,000, don't invest more than 800 regularly. If you lose everything, it shouldn't affect your life, allowing you to remain calm.
Mandatory stop-loss line: My iron rule is that any single loss exceeding 5% must be cut. If it breaks the 5-day moving average in the short term or the 20-day moving average in the medium term, leave immediately; do not fall in love with the market.
Beware of the compounding trap: Doubling 1 million to 2 million requires a 100% increase, but dropping back to 1 million only requires a 50% loss. Big swings are not as good as steady progress.
2. Position management: Divide your funds into 'three layers of armor.'
I always divide my positions into three parts, balancing offense and defense:
Fundamental ballast (30%): Allocate mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are the most resilient during crashes and can help you sleep peacefully.
Swing attack position (50%): Use the 15-minute KDJ indicator for short trades; decisively take profits at 15% and retreat immediately at 5% loss. Remember: Small profits rely on skill, large profits rely on patience.
Cash reserves (20%): Only add to positions when there is a real drop. Even in a bear market, resist the urge to buy when it drops 50%, wait for a daily MACD golden cross before taking action.
3. Technical indicators are about quality, not quantity; three charts in resonance double the win rate.
Retail investors love to pile on indicators, resulting in conflicts. I only focus on three for the long term:
15-minute KDJ: Capture short-term buy and sell points. Consider buying when the J value drops below 0, and be ready to take profits when it exceeds 100.
Daily MACD: Determine the major trend. If DIF and DEA cross above the 0 axis, confirm a bull market; if they cross below, decisively reduce positions.
Weekly Bollinger Bands: Identify key support. When the price touches the lower band and volume decreases, it may indicate a swing bottom.
Only take action when the three charts are in resonance (short, medium, and long trends aligned), which directly doubles the win rate.
4. Use tools effectively to avoid 80% of the pitfalls.
The crypto market is flooded with information, but experts only rely on a few tools to see the essence:
TradingView: Draw lines to analyze support and resistance daily, and set orders in advance.
Glassnode: Monitor the movements of whale accounts. If they continue to accumulate Bitcoin, don't short too easily.
TokenSniffer: Examine altcoin traps, with highlighted contract risk alerts.
Jin10 data: Real-time tracking of Federal Reserve policies. The crypto market's ups and downs largely depend on macroeconomic conditions.
5. Psychological game: 90% of losses stem from emotions.
The crypto market is a zero-sum game; your opponent is your own greed and fear.
FOMO (fear of missing out): Feeling the urge to chase high during a surge? Use Santiment to check the social sentiment index; when it exceeds 70% positive signals, it is often a trap.
Panic selling: During market crashes, watch the fear and greed index. Below 20 might be a bottom-fishing opportunity.
Revenge trading: Want to recover losses immediately? Enforce a 24-hour cool-off period. Remember: Losing 50% requires a 100% gain to break even.
6. Survive to see the next bull market.
The crypto market is not short of opportunities, but what it lacks is 'those who survive to see the bull market.'
Focus on your circle of competence: Don't fantasize about mastering all sectors. I delve deep into DeFi, earning 70% of my profits through mining and airdrops.
Narrative outweighs fundamentals: Dogecoin can rise a thousand times, not because of technology but due to community consensus. Where the money flows, opportunities arise.
Use AI for post-analysis: I record my trades weekly with Notion, allowing AI to analyze emotional blind spots. For example, 'increasing leverage after each profit' is the biggest mistake.
My five years in the crypto space have made me completely clear: the market is always in cycles, but most people die before dawn. If you currently have only a few thousand in capital, don't fantasize about a sudden turnaround—first, kneel down to fill in your knowledge gaps, treating every trade as tuition. Discipline is more important than skill, and surviving is more important than making quick money.
Market always emerges from despair and grows in doubt. The key is to follow the right leader and protect your principal. Follow Xiang Ge for more firsthand information and precise points in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
