The HBAR price is stable today; it has not yet recovered from a sharp decline of nearly 29% in the last month. Looking at the past week, it is still about 6% down. Although the overall picture seems weak, a deeper look shows that things are not as simple as they appear. While individual investor interest is low, whales have made significant purchases in the last two days.
The combination of weakness and accumulation indicates that even though the price is weak, a bottom may be forming underneath.
Weak Demand Facing Intense Accumulation?
HBAR is still moving within a descending wedge formation. Wedges are generally bullish; as they indicate that sellers are losing strength over time. However, an additional weakness is noticeable within this wedge. Between December 7 and December 11, while HBAR was making a higher low, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) formed a lower low.
Do you need more token analysis? You can subscribe for free to Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Bulletin here.
OBV is a cumulative volume indicator that tracks the money flowing into and out of a token. If the price is making higher lows while OBV is declining, it indicates that buyers do not have the strength to support the recovery. This can lead to bearish divergence even within a bullish formation.
Whales, on the other hand, are following a completely different path. The number of wallets holding at least 10 million HBAR increased from 136.54 to 149.49. The number of wallets owning at least 100 million HBAR skyrocketed from 40.65 to 73.62. If we only consider the minimum levels, whales added approximately 3.42 billion HBAR in the last 48 hours. With the current price, this amount is worth at least $445 million.
OBV reflects the trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges; large-scale off-exchange transfers or OTC/custodial transfers do not appear in OBV. Therefore, some whale movements do not reflect in OBV, making it more accurate in showing individual interest.
This contradiction prepares the ground for the next section; as whales are likely reacting to a deeper signal.
Recurring Signal Followed by Whales
Between October 17 and December 11, while the price was making a new low, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) formed a higher low. The RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. If the RSI rises while the price is falling, a standard bullish divergence occurs. Such divergences often result in trend reversals.
The same divergence was also observed in past rally attempts. This formation occurred on December 1st and December 7th, with HBAR rising by 15% and 12% from the lows respectively. However, these rallies were stuck at resistance. Now, record whale purchases have been added to this divergence. This makes the current recovery attempt more meaningful than previous wedge movements.
If the resistance where previous rallies stalled is surpassed, this strong divergence could turn the price structure from bearish to bullish. Whales are likely preparing for this as well.
Key Price Levels for HBAR
The daily close for the HBAR price needs to be above $0.159. This level was not surpassed in previous rallies. A breakout above this band would exceed the upper line of the wedge and could carry the price to targets of $0.198 and $0.219 respectively.
If the price weakens again, the level of $0.122 should be monitored. If it falls below this, HBAR will return to the lower boundary of the wedge. However, this line is not very strong as it has only been tested at two points. A break below it would delay recovery and indicate that sellers have not relinquished control.
At this stage, OBV shows weak demand, while the RSI is in a positive setup. Whales purchased approximately 3.42 billion HBAR from the lows. If HBAR surpasses $0.159, whale accumulation could turn from background data into a main catalyst pushing the price higher.
