Allegations that Jane Street, one of Wall Street's leading trading firms, initiates a 'dump' movement in Bitcoin every day at 10:00 resurfaced on December 12 after a sharp intraday drop in BTC.
Claims made on social media once again pointed to institutional traders and ETF market makers. However, when the data is closely examined, a more detailed and complex picture emerges.
What is the 10:00 Narrative?
According to this theory, Bitcoin generally experiences selling pressure around the hours of 09:30-10:00 when the US stock market opens. Jane Street is frequently mentioned as a significant market maker and authorized participant for spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US.
According to allegations, these companies are triggering liquidation by pulling the price down, and then buying back at a lower price. However, no regulator, cryptocurrency exchange, or data provider has confirmed such coordinated behavior.
Bitcoin futures data does not signal a sharp dump.
Bitcoin remained stable until the opening of the U.S. market today, trading in a narrow band between $92,000 and $93,000. At exactly 10:00, no sudden or extraordinary selling was observed.
Later in the day, a sharp drop occurred close to noon in the U.S., and BTC momentarily fell below $90,000. This indicates that the selling pressure did not develop at the opening moment but rather with some delay.
The open positions for Bitcoin futures on major cryptocurrency exchanges remained stable overall. The total open position value also changed little throughout the day, indicating no significant increase in new short positions.
A slight decrease in open positions was observed on CME, the platform most heavily used for institutional trading. Such movements are usually for risk reduction or hedging purposes and do not indicate aggressive and one-sided selling.
If a large proprietary trading firm were to execute a coordinated dump, a sudden spike or collapse in open positions would be expected. However, such a situation did not occur.
Liquidations Explain the Movement
Liquidation data explains the situation better. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations exceeding $430 million occurred in the total cryptocurrency market, with a large portion coming from long positions.
In Bitcoin alone, more than $68 million worth of positions were liquidated, while liquidations in Ethereum were even higher. This indicates that this situation is not unique to Bitcoin but points to a general leverage erosion in the market.
When prices fall below critical levels, forced liquidations can accelerate the decline. Often, sharp pullbacks can occur without the need for a single large seller.
The most striking detail is that there was a $77 million outflow after two consecutive inflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on December 11. Today's short-term price shock has largely appeared as a reflection of this movement.
This movement was observed in a distributed manner across many cryptocurrency exchanges, including Binance, CME, OKX, and Bybit. There is no evidence that the selling pressure concentrated on a single platform or product.
This is an important detail because coordinated manipulation events usually leave traces behind. Today's movement appears to be more of a result of automated risk reduction across various exchanges and products.
Why does the Jane Street narrative keep coming up?
Volatility in Bitcoin generally increases during U.S. market hours: This is due to ETF trading, macro data announcements, and institutional portfolio adjustments. These structural dynamics can sometimes make market movements appear congested at the same hours.
Jane Street's visibility in ETF markets makes it an easy target for speculation. However, it requires hedge and inventory management rather than price attacks from market-making.
Today's movement repeats a very familiar cycle in cryptocurrency markets. Leverage accumulates, prices slide, liquidations are triggered by a domino effect, and new narratives emerge.
