Bitcoin (BTC) has been maintaining its price stagnation in recent days, hovering around $90,000 at the time of writing this article on Friday, as investors try to digest the effects of the Federal Reserve's cautious interest rate cut in December on risky assets.
In the BTC price, a descending trend line that could be critical for determining direction is approaching. Meanwhile, a slight increase in institutional investors' interest in Spot Bitcoin ETFs has been observed, while Strategy added a bit more BTC to its treasury.
The Fed's Policy Tone Triggered Price Stagnation in Bitcoin
Bitcoin price started the week strong, maintaining the weekend's recovery during the first half of the week and managed to stay above $92,600 on Tuesday.
However, momentum weakened on Wednesday, and BTC closed at $92,015 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
As expected, the Fed cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. However, the FOMC meeting delivered a wait-and-see message for January.
While policymakers continue their cautious approach, their forecast of only a quarter-point cut for 2026 has restrained the market's expectations for two rate cuts and put pressure on risky assets in the short term.
The Fed's cautious tone and Oracle's weak earnings report triggered a short-lived flight to safety in the markets.
While all these developments increase the pressure on risky assets, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, briefly fell to $89,260 and then rebounded to close above $92,500 on Thursday.
Due to the absence of significant U.S. data ahead, the cryptocurrency market will now follow the statements of FOMC members and general risk appetite.
The effort to find direction will continue towards the weekend.
BTC is likely to enter a period of price stagnation for a while in the near term; this scenario may persist unless a significant catalyst emerges.
Russia-Ukraine Uncertainty Limits Risk Appetite
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump's spokesperson stated on Thursday that he is 'extremely angry' regarding Russia and Ukraine and no longer wants to discuss this matter.
Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the U.S. had asked for land from Russia in exchange for ending the nearly four-year war.
These ongoing geopolitical tensions and stalled peace talks negatively affect global investor sentiment; risk appetite is decreasing, leading Bitcoin to remain stagnant in price this week.
Signs of Slight Improvement in Institutional Demand
There are slight movements in institutional interest in Bitcoin.
According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. recorded a total net inflow of $237.44 million by Thursday; this figure indicates that interest has increased again compared to the $87.77 million outflow a week ago.
However, these weekly inflows are still behind the levels seen in mid-September. A significant acceleration in ETF inflows is needed for a strong recovery in BTC.
On Monday, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced that between December 1-7, it purchased 10,624 Bitcoin at an average price of $90,615, spending a total of $962.7 million.
The value of the 660,624 BTC currently held by the company has reached $49.35 billion. Strategy still has significant capacity for capital increase and may continue with large-scale Bitcoin purchases in the future.
On-Chain Data Shows Selling Pressure is Decreasing
CryptoQuant's weekly report published on Wednesday emphasizes that the selling pressure on Bitcoin has started to decrease.
The report indicates that Bitcoin investments made to exchanges have also declined as large investors reduce transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges.
In the chart below, it can be seen that the share of large players in total transfers has decreased from 47% in mid-November to 21% as of Wednesday.
The average transfer amount during the same period was 1.1 BTC on November 22, but it has now decreased by 36% to 0.7 BTC.
The CryptoQuant report states that if the selling pressure remains low, a relief rally for Bitcoin could trigger a rise up to the $99,000 level. This corresponds to the lower boundary of Trader On-chain Realized Price bands and acts as significant resistance in a bear market.
Following this level, significant resistance levels are $102,000 (one-year moving average) and $112,000 (Trader On-chain Realized Price).
The latest Copper Research report presents an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. The report emphasizes that BTC's four-year cycle has not ended but rather transformed.
Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited recurring Cost Base Return Cycles, as seen in the chart below.
Copper Research Chairman Fadi Aboualfa stated in an interview with FXStreet: 'After spot ETFs hit the market, Bitcoin retraced to its cost base and then entered recurring mini cycles, rising nearly 70%.'
Currently, BTC trading at around $84,000 suggests that the price could rise above $140,000 within the next 180 days.
If the cost base increases by 10-15% as seen in previous cycles, the range of $138,000-148,000 becomes the target along with the premium seen at past peaks.
Is the Year-End Rally Approaching for Bitcoin?
In November, Bitcoin lost 17.67% in value, disappointing traders who expected an increase due to its historical monthly returns (see CoinGlass data below).
December is historically one of the positively performing periods for the leading cryptocurrency: Its average return is around 4.55%.
Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has generally been the strongest period for BTC: The average return is at 77.38%.
Still, the last three months of 2025 have so far fallen short of expectations; currently, a 19% loss is observed.
Is Bitcoin Forming a Bottom at the Dip?
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows that the price found support at the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $85,809; after the four-week correction at the end of October, two green candles appeared in succession.
As of this week, BTC is trading slightly stronger above $92,400.
If BTC continues its recovery, it is possible for the rise to continue up to the 50-week EMA, which is $99,182.
In the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) level is at 40 and trending upwards. This indicates a decrease in downward momentum. For the recovery to be sustained, the RSI needs to climb above the neutral level of 50.
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin's price on Wednesday was stuck at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement at $94,253 (pulled from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,199 seen in October).
However, on Thursday, BTC rebounded after retesting the psychological level of $90,000.
If BTC breaks the descending trend line formed since the beginning of October (by connecting multiple peaks) and closes daily above $94,253
The resistance level could be surpassed, and the rise may continue towards the psychological resistance of $100,000.
In the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near the neutral level of 50 and balanced. This indicates a lack of clear momentum for both sides in the short term.
For upward momentum to continue, the RSI needs to rise above the neutral level.
On the other hand, the bullish crossover indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator at the end of November is still intact and supports the bullish narrative.
If BTC continues to correct downward, the first strong support is found at $85,569, and this point coincides with the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement level.
