According to a number of metrics, the market is once again showing signs of restructuring. Below are the key signals and what they mean for the ordinary investor.
1. Old wallets from the Satoshi era have been activated
In 2025, long-dormant addresses created back in the early days of Bitcoin began to awaken. They hold tens of thousands of BTC. Such movements are almost always perceived as a sign of the emergence of large players who can adjust the long-term supply in the market.
For beginners: when 'ancient' wallets are activated, it means that part of the long-standing supply may again come into circulation. This is not a panic signal, but an important structural indicator.
2. Attention to credit default swaps is increasing.
Analysts note that CDS are beginning to be used as an indirect indicator of potential overheating in the artificial intelligence sector. This is important for the crypto market: a strong correction in the stock market almost always reflects on digital assets.
For beginners: CDS is insurance against defaults. If its cost is rising, it indicates an increase in market stress.
3. Short-term holders are operating at a loss.
According to CryptoQuant, many short-term investors are trading below their cost basis. This is characteristic of market pressure phases when weak hands capitulate.
For beginners: short-term holders often sell first during declines. Their losses are a sign that the market may be approaching a balancing point.
4. Few new participants, especially in altcoins.
AntiFragile states that currently there is a low influx of new users in the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin experienced a surge in activity during the decline, while altcoins saw almost none. This indicates a decrease in risk appetite and a more conservative market behavior.
For beginners: the absence of new money in altcoins indicates weak demand and low resilience to declines.
5. Positive sentiment has been maintained for the second week in a row.
Despite the weak activity of beginners and pressure on short-term traders, overall sentiment has gradually improved. This is a moderate but positive signal.
Conclusion
The market is currently built around long-term players and is responding less and less to short-term spikes. It is important for beginners to understand that such periods often become the foundation for future trends: supply is redistributed, weak hands capitulate, and strong hands buy quietly.
Such phases do not look spectacular, but it is during them that points of strength for subsequent movement are formed. $ETH $BNB
