Dogecoin is trading under pressure, with the 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages limiting the upward trend.
Retail traders remain on the sidelines as open interest lags amid a lack of inflows into exchange-traded funds.
The MACD indicator maintains a slight positive edge, but the overall outlook is still bearish.
Dogecoin ($DOGE ) is trading marginally above its opening price for the day at $0.1403 at the time of writing this report on Friday. Support at $0.1321 has remained steady since November 20, despite the cautious sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday was marked by a sharp rise in volatility, as investors absorbed the hawkish outlook that is likely to set the tone in 2026.
Inflation risks and a weak labor market have emerged as factors that could prompt the central bank to suspend its monetary easing cycle, a forecast that may continue to drive macroeconomic uncertainty.
Dogecoin is facing a decline in institutional and individual interest
The Dogecoin derivatives market is heavily compressed, with open interest in futures at $1.5 billion on Friday, down from $4.4 billion on October 10.
This sharp decline in open interest, which represents the nominal value of outstanding futures contracts, has been driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and the October collapse, which pulled more than $19 billion in assets in a single day.
Interest from individuals has significantly decreased since then, reflecting a persistent sense of caution as investors remain on the sidelines. The low open interest also indicates that investors have lost confidence in the market, which may continue to dictate the rebounds.
Open interest in Dogecoin | Source: CoinGlass
The launch of ETFs in November was a major turning point for Dogecoin, being the largest meme coin by market capitalization. However, institutional interest has remained in a declining position, characterized by light flows into ETFs.
According to SoSoValue data, U.S.-listed $DOGE ETFs recorded no flows on Thursday, after registering nearly $172,000 in flows on Wednesday. The average cumulative flow volume is $2 million with net assets of $5.74 million. Two Dogecoin ETFs operate in the U.S., including Grayscale's GDOG and Bitwise's BWOW.
Dogecoin ETF statistics | Source: SoSoValue
Technical outlook: Dogecoin continues to trade sideways
Dogecoin $DOGE is trading at $0.1397 and remains below the 50-day exponential moving average at $0.1625, the 100-day exponential moving average at $0.1813, and the 200-day exponential moving average at $0.1957, maintaining an overall bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally above the signal line (red), while the green bars in the histogram on the daily chart are shrinking, indicating waning upward momentum. Dogecoin may extend the downward trend below support at $0.1332 if the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dips at 41 more.
The daily chart of Dogecoin/USD
The descending trendline from $0.3063 has challenged rebounds, with resistance at $0.1688. The strength of Dogecoin's trend remains high but is retracting, as the Average Directional Index (ADX) hovers near 37. A daily close above the first hurdle at $0.1688 would improve the tone and unveil the 100-day exponential moving average at $0.1813. Failing to reclaim the 50-day exponential moving average would keep the highs limited and leave sellers in control.
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