Exclusive firsthand analysis, conducted by #ThaiTraderOficial:
The Federal Reserve's most recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points has reignited intense discussions within the central bank itself. Three dissenting members, Austan Goolsbee (Chicago), Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City), and Stephen Miran, publicly expressed serious concerns that alter the market's reading of the move.
The central point is straightforward: for these members, the Fed cut rates too early, without sufficient data and with inflation still uncomfortably high.
Cut without updated data: the risk that the market cannot ignore
Auston Goolsbee highlighted that the lack of recent data, a consequence of the government shutdown for 43 days, compromised the quality of the decision. In other words, the Fed cut rates without updated official information on inflation and the labor market.
Goolsbee was clear:
"We should have waited to get more data, especially on inflation."
According to him, waiting until the beginning of next year would have allowed for a well-founded decision, with complete government reports and without representing significant risk to the labor market, which is only 'moderately cooling.'
This point is critical because it signals that the cut was based on projections, not on concrete data. In other words: the Fed acted in the dark.
Inflation above the target and stagnant progress
Another point raised by the dissidents is that inflation has stagnated in recent months and has remained above the target for more than four years. The latest official data, still from September, shows an inflation rate of 2.8%, higher than the previous month and above the desired 2%.
Business owners and consumers continue to report constant concern about prices, something repeatedly mentioned by the Fed's regional officials.
For Jeffrey Schmid, the economy still shows strength and monetary policy is not excessively restrictive. In his view, reducing rates now could open space for a new cycle of inflationary pressure.
An internal divergence that could dictate the direction of the markets
The divergence within the Fed also highlights a complex scenario:
– A group wanted to keep interest rates steady,
– Another argued for a larger cut,
– The majority approved a moderate cut,
– A significant part believes that the decision was rushed.
This lack of consensus reinforces that the current scenario requires caution from investors, especially those most exposed to volatility, such as the cryptocurrency market.
Direct impact on the crypto market
For the crypto universe, this context is extremely relevant. When the Fed shows insecurity or internal fragmentation, the reaction is usually immediate:
Volatility increases,
Institutional flows become more cautious,
Correction risks widen,
And assets more sensitive to risk appetite, like Bitcoin, feel the impact more quickly.
The fact that the Fed cut interest rates without updated data creates an environment of uncertainty that leaves BTC in a vulnerable zone, especially while it remains below decisive regions.
The reading is straightforward: any new harsher statement or data showing persistent inflation could trigger quick corrections in the crypto market.
Technical levels and the turning point
Meanwhile, from a technical point of view:
Below the 92 region, BTC remains in a high-risk area, as I have been pointing out for weeks.
A recovery above 98 is the trigger that returns real strength to the market and signals clearer institutional entry.
The current moment is still decisive, and as I highlighted in the last live session, the chart is exactly in the breakout zone that defines where the next movement expands.
The message from the Fed dissidents must be taken seriously: inflation is still high, progress is stagnant, and lack of data turns any interest rate cut into a calculated risk, and possibly a miscalculated one.
For the traditional market, this is already relevant. For the crypto market, this is amplified.
As long as Bitcoin does not regain strength levels, caution remains the most intelligent behavior.
