Bitcoin is once again at the center of discussions on Wall Street, all thanks to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise. His latest presentation for the largest financial institutions shows extremely bullish price scenarios. According to him, Bitcoin could reach as much as 1.3 million USD faster than many investors assume.
These are no longer speculations from internet forums, but forecasts presented behind closed doors to entities managing trillions of dollars. At the same time, it is worth examining why institutions are beginning to ask questions about Bitcoin that they previously did not.
Matt Hougan's forecast that surprised institutions
Matt Hougan presented institutions with extremely ambitious price scenarios, each based on macroeconomic data. Hougan emphasizes that his base scenario assumes a price of $1.3 million for Bitcoin by 2035. He points out that this outcome is solely due to Bitcoin capturing 25% of the gold market, while today it only constitutes 9%. At the same time, he notes that these assumptions are not beyond historical realities, as gold has increased 10× since 2004.
Hougan explains that with full parity to the gold market, Bitcoin's price could reach $7 million. He also adds that the scenario of surpassing the gold market raises the possible valuation even to $10 million. He emphasizes that the store of value market is changing similarly to how it did over the last 20 years, and the direction of this trend remains stable.
“Bitcoin no longer needs hype – just ordinary math: a fixed, limited supply plus growing institutional demand and macro flight from fiat equals $1.3 million (base, conservative scenario) by 2035, and with total market capture of store of value even $7–10 million.”
It was this quote that made the biggest impression on the presentation's audience.
Why are institutions suddenly interested in Bitcoin?
For years, institutions ignored long-term forecasts for digital assets, but the situation changed in 2025. Hougan emphasizes that the top 12 platforms managing trillions of dollars asked Bitwise for forecasts. He notes that there had not been a single such inquiry in the previous 7 years. This suggests a lasting change in the perception of the role Bitcoin could play in the global financial system.
Why are institutions changing their stance right now? One of the key reasons is the anxiety surrounding fiat currencies, particularly in the US. The United States' debt is increasing every year, and the interest amounts to nearly $1 trillion annually. Institutions like Harvard and investors such as Ray Dalio are turning their attention towards assets resistant to devaluation.
In the presentation, Hougan reminds that Harvard bought 2 times more Bitcoin than gold. This fact is a clear signal of a shift in capital allocation structure. Many institutional investors are now asking one question: will Bitcoin become the primary store of value in the 21st century?
Macro drivers pushing Bitcoin towards new records
Hougan highlights three key factors that together could push Bitcoin to record levels. The first is growing concerns about fiat currencies losing value as governments increase their debt. The second factor is the declining dominance of the dollar in global currency reserves. Central banks buy over 1,000 tons of gold annually, and more countries are beginning to accumulate BTC. The third factor is regulatory changes that strengthen the crypto market's position.
It is worth noting that the new SEC chair announced the tokenization of all US stocks within 2 years. This process encompasses a market worth $68 trillion and could create a huge boost for digital assets. At the same time, institutional investors are beginning to notice Bitcoin's low correlation with stocks, historically ranging from 0.2 to 0.36. Decreasing volatility, in turn, resembles gold's behavior after 1971.
You may ask whether such high forecasts are realistic? Hougan responds that expected returns are 28%, significantly higher than stocks, bonds, or private equity. The next question is whether volatility will hinder achieving such results? Hougan points out that Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing, and along with it, the stability of its long-term valuation models is increasing.
In one part of the presentation, Hougan outlined simple summary points regarding this trend change:
growing institutional demand,
declining dominance of the dollar,
macro trend of fleeing from fiat currencies.
Each of these factors supports the thesis of the increasing role of digital assets.
To access the latest analysis of the cryptocurrency market from BeInCrypto, click here.
