"Yesterday, Bai Ge shouted 89,000 and 3,100 to go long, did you get to eat this wave of meat?"—If you missed it, don't bang your thighs, because the real show may just be starting.
Today is December 12, 2025, Double 12. In previous years, around this time, Bitcoin had already started brewing the 'Christmas market'. The data doesn't lie, let's take a look at history:
The truth of historical data
In the first December after the halving, Bitcoin never hesitated:
• December 2017: surged 86% (that was when retail investors were in FOMO)
• December 2020: increased by 48% (institutions started to enter, Grayscale led the buying spree)
• December 2024: Gain of 31% (ETF channel opens, state governments start hoarding).
Do you see the pattern? The deeper the institutions participate, the more 'restrained' the gains, but the more solid the foundation. 2025 is the first year after the halving; historical data shows that as long as the exchange balance is below 3 million coins, the December gains have never been lower than 30%.
How many are there in the exchanges now? 2,760,000—440,000 less than the end of last year, equivalent to 4,000 BTC being withdrawn and locked every day. This is not a simple change in data, but a fundamental shift in market structure is occurring.
Where have all the coins gone? Two 'Pi Xiu' have locked up liquidity.
1. Diamond hands: The ballast stone of the market.
Long-term holders who have held for over 155 days now hold 13.75 million BTC, accounting for 70.4% of the total circulating supply. These coins are lying in cold wallets, not participating in short-term trading, effectively providing a cushion against market declines.
2. National team: The hardest core bulls
The style has really changed. JPMorgan, which once called Bitcoin a 'scam,' is now forcing its employees to learn about Bitcoin; gold bull Peter Schiff has turned to gold tokenization—this is equivalent to recognizing blockchain as the 'daughter' while not acknowledging Bitcoin as the 'father.'
Even more exaggerated is at the government level:
• Texas: Directly using $100 million of its budget to buy BTC, having already hoarded 32,000 coins as emergency reserves.
• Florida: Throwing 5% of teacher pensions (about $8.7 billion) into Bitcoin ETF.
• Trump family: Holds over 150,000 BTC through funds, controlling 23% of the US's computing power, even claiming they want the country to hold 10% of the global circulation.
Once great bears have collectively defected; this is not a conspiracy but a result of the market voting with its feet.
The Federal Reserve's 'herding sheep' game
Recently, Old Powell has been lowering interest rates while giving out candy and waving a hawk; is that chaotic? Not at all. He is deliberately muddying the waters, pushing funds out of traditional markets.
The US stock market now resembles a broken barrel; no matter how much water is poured in, it can't hold. Plus, the government occasionally 'shuts down' and messes things up, causing the dollar's credibility to begin to waver. With money flowing out, there has to be a new reservoir—Bitcoin, which relies solely on code rules and not on government endorsement, has become the most 'straightforward' safe haven.
As for why the market hasn't taken off yet? Buddy, BTC of this magnitude requires real money to drive it. Right now, the Federal Reserve is just talking; once it really starts injecting liquidity, the market will naturally come alive. So, be patient; opportunities are waiting to be seized.
Operational strategy: Your capital size determines your play style.
Large capital players (over $1 million)
Stock up on cash and make money during the cycles. In the first year after the halving, holding mainstream coins for a year and a half with an annualized return of 30%+ is the baseline. Don't fidget; the logic of planting in spring, sowing in summer, harvesting in autumn, and storing in winter applies here as well. Only those who can endure loneliness can make big money.
Small capital players (under $100,000)
Engage in contracts to profit from volatility. If your capital is small, don't think about getting rich through holding coins; quick in and out, dancing on the edge is your battlefield. But remember: flexibility is the rule for survival, and caution and patience are the lifelines.
There are always people in the market telling you 'only hold cash, don't touch contracts' or 'contracts are the only way out.' Both are right and wrong—there's no right or wrong strategy, only what fits your actual situation.
How to stock up specifically? How to play contracts? Click into the homepage to find me, join the group chat for insights that can't be publicly shared.
$100,000, is it a ceiling or a floor?
Back to the question in the title: Can it return to $100,000 this year?
On-chain data, institutional holdings, policy shifts, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts—all signals point in one direction: $100,000 is not the endpoint, but a new starting point. However, the process won't be smooth; a 30% pullback could happen at any time.
So, don’t guess the top or the bottom. Choose the right strategy according to your capital size and strictly execute profit-taking and stop-loss, which is ten times more important than getting hung up on specific points.
📈 Do you think this Christmas market will be good? Are you in cash or fully invested? Share your position and logic in the comments so that others can reference!
💡 Think the analysis is useful? Like + follow, in the next article, we'll talk about specific points!
🔄 It's better to enjoy together than alone. Forward this to your crypto-trading buddies and let's seize this opportunity together!
Disclaimer: This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risks; proceed with caution. #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC
