Quick summary — key points currently needed by everyone

1. Reserves $BTC on the exchange continue to decrease sharply — the trend of net withdrawals is expected to last into 2025, creating low supply pressure (supply shock potential).

2. Spot-ETF remains a significant capital driver: periodic ETF inflows + increased AUM (BlackRock & large funds) — ETFs continue to attract liquidity into Bitcoin.

3. Fed & macroeconomic factors causing short-term instability — the Fed just cut rates once but is internally divided; the market is debating the number of rate cuts in 2026 (greatly affecting risk capital flows).

4. Selling pressure from miners / profitability decreasing — mining profits have dropped over the past few months, warning that miners may sell more if prices continue to fall.

5. Supply from Long-Term Holders (LTH) has reached a cycle bottom — long-term selling pressure shows signs of weakening, reducing selling supply pressure from long-term holders.