Due to attending the Dubai conference at the beginning of the month, last week's review post was paused for a week, thank you for your patience! Now let's get straight to the point! Bitcoin at 80600 has bottomed out and has rebounded for three weeks now, which can be said to be mediocre. Apart from Ethereum being relatively strong, other coins including Bitcoin have shown average rebound strength. Bitcoin has formed five or six resistance levels but still cannot break through the 94000 pressure, falling short of Sister Bei's expected value.
This week, before and after the interest rate cut, Sister Bei took advantage of the relatively high position to reduce her holdings by 35%, completely clearing out the altcoins, liquidating pengu, ray, sui, ada, and bnb, and closing all risk exposures. She also reduced her holdings of pepe by 50% and sol by 30%, mostly at a loss. Her actual account now only has 770000 left, still in a halved state, it hurts!
Why not wait a bit longer to sell at a high position? Because I see the risk of a trend change! If it's a bull market, I can still strategize, but in a bear market, I must consider risks first and preserve my strength. After all, the real funds are all from previous profits; it's just that profits have significantly retraced. As long as there is a profit, it's good; I've lowered my expectations to the minimum in a bear market.
Let's talk about the upcoming risk of a change in trend. I expect this rebound to clear out at around 98000 to 100000, but after three weeks of gold, no matter what positive news comes out, it can't rise. As time goes by, the variables will become greater, and there are no expected favorable developments. Altcoins have hardly seen any decent rebounds; if Bitcoin breaks down, the outcome will definitely be worse.
Currently, Bitcoin has once again formed a triangular convergence structure, and the time for a change in this convergence area is next week. If we refer to the structure of one month after October 11, you will find that it is almost identical to the current movement. After breaking the bottom formed on November 4, an upward trend line at 107000 was established, and after a week of retracement and rebound that failed to regain its position, a new round of decline began, directly dropping to 80600.
Now, this short-term upward trend line is supported at 88000. Once it breaks down, it is highly likely to replay this movement, which will test the support at 74500. Sister Bei doesn't want to wait any longer, which is also the reason for her ruthless decision to cut losses and exit. Of course, there is still hope for a higher rebound, but at least it must stabilize above 95000 to break through the downward channel pressure formed by the bull top; only then can we be optimistic about the possibility of touching around 100000.
Next week there is a significant negative factor, which is the Japanese central bank's interest rate hike on Friday. Although this negative factor has already been partially priced in, I don't want to take the risk to gamble on a rise. The liquidity in the market has always been very poor, with no enthusiasm. If it breaks below 88000 or rises to 95000, I will continue to clear out.
I believe there is still a chance to test around 100000 for Bitcoin, but not this month. The liquidity during the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day will be very poor, and no one is playing in the stock market, let alone in the crypto circle. There is still a possibility of rebounding in the first quarter, especially since there is a need to cover shorts. Those who can hold on can be patient and wait. My choice is to focus only on the short term; take it one step at a time, and letting go will not continuously drain my energy.
During this period, I have also been adapting to market changes, adjusting my thoughts and strategies to make money. Next, I will start shorting, laying out long positions in Bitcoin and mainstream low-leverage shorts, and seizing more short-term opportunities. If I can earn, I will earn while lowering expectations, mainly to preserve my strength. I will endure until next year's National Day, and then I will reposition for the next bull market at around 40,000 to 50,000 for Bitcoin. Next year's hot money will all gather for the World Cup, so I don't believe there will be a new bull market peak next year.
This year is also a good time for calmness, reflection, and learning. Summarize the gains and losses of this round, remember the lessons, and build a solid foundation. I will continue to write review posts, but they may not be updated weekly; if there are significant changes and hot topics, I will write, otherwise, I will post once every two to three weeks. I will reduce some energy spent on social media and focus on honing my investment and trading skills. When autumn arrives on September 8, my flowers will bloom, and a hundred flowers will compete. The fragrant aroma fills Chang'an, and the city is adorned with golden armor.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场观察
