#200u起家日记

12.13 Day 43

Capital 310u This month's capital 350u

Yesterday I shorted AAVE and FART, let's review.

1. It's a pity to short AAVE, I shorted at the highest point of 205.5. The three tops and four-hour top divergence was one day apart. In my trading system, after reviewing this situation a thousand times, it has a 70% win rate, but unfortunately, I didn't hold on and only made 10u. If I had held on, I could have made 100u when it plummeted to 190 at the open.

I earn 10u every day and feel dizzy 😫.

In the past two days, I missed two opportunities to make 100u.

When losing money, I just grab it tightly, it's exhausting.

The reason I didn't hold on is that I traded during the day, and there was no movement for a whole day. However, I thought it would plummet at night. One part of my mind said it would collapse at 10:30 PM, while another part said to quickly close the position since there had been no movement for a day. There was no synergy, and in the end, an hour before the open, I closed the position like a novice.

So I have to trade at night, as during the day if there is no movement for half a day, I start to doubt holding onto it. Sure enough, it plummeted as soon as the market opened 📉.

So I analyze that my win rate is high at night for this reason. During the day, there are fluctuations and even stop losses, plus false signals. I chose the highest point of 205 to short, but it's not the optimal short position.

If I had shorted at 203 at 10:30 PM, it would have plummeted to 190 in an hour. Holding the position would not only have no pressure but also could yield significant profits. If I had been wrong, I could have lost quickly, and I would accept that. Moreover, I am aware that the US stock market opens at 10:30 PM with significant volatility, but because I held the position for a whole day with no movement, I was still afraid and closed it. So I realized this and will take note of it next time. It’s not necessary to choose the highest point to short; selecting a time node where there is rapid decline is better.

2. FART also shorted on the four-hour top divergence, but unfortunately, the decline was not smooth. There is nothing I can do; it couldn't drop, which is not my problem.

If it can't drop, I will first close the position. In the future, if it hits the resistance level, I can continue to short.

Alright, goodbye 👋