The Philippines claims to have successfully driven away a Chinese coast guard ship. Upon further inspection, it turns out the location is in the southwest of Mindanao. What a bold announcement!
On December 6, the Philippine Coast Guard announced that they had "successfully" driven a Chinese coast guard ship to a location further away from the Zamboanga coastline. Once the news broke, it seemed as if the Philippines had achieved something remarkable. However, if we lay out the map, this so-called "successful expulsion" appears more like a one-man show for the Philippines.
First, let's discuss the location—Zamboanga is located at the southwestern tip of Mindanao, adjacent to the Sulu Sea, which is more like the Philippines' inland waters.
Based on past incidents, Chinese vessels typically adjust their course after completing their planned route, rather than being forced to retreat due to pressure from the Philippines. In other words, the so-called "successful expulsion" is likely just the Chinese side departing as planned, while the Philippines interprets it as a "tactical victory."
The most critical issue is the equipment gap. The main vessels of the Philippine Coast Guard are mostly patrol boats weighing a few hundred tons, with a maximum of around 2000 tons; whereas the Chinese coast guard has recently commissioned 10,000-ton law enforcement ships (like Coast Guard 3901) that not only have a much larger tonnage but are also equipped with helicopter decks, high-pressure water cannons, and even non-lethal weapon systems.
In such a situation of disparity in strength, if the Philippines could genuinely "stand firm" and force the Chinese vessels to retreat, that would be a miracle. The reality is more likely that the Chinese had no intention of entangling and departed on their own, while the Philippines took the opportunity to declare "victory." This kind of victory narrative would likely make even U.S. military commanders chuckle. However, it can be understood, as we live in a world where such narratives prevail.
