$ETH is not a divine prediction, but rather logic is ahead
Last night's market crash caught many by surprise.
But if you had read Brother Pao's analysis in advance, it wouldn't be surprising at all.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, and Powell neither dove nor hawked, leaving the 'direction' to future data—
At that time, my judgment was very simple:
This is not a confirmation of a bull market, but rather an emotional buffer at the beginning of a bear market.
It has been proven that the market's path is almost identical to my analysis.
It's not that I'm smarter than the market,
but I have always believed in one thing: prices can be misleading, but structures cannot.
At that time, there were several very typical signals in the market:
The good news had already been anticipated
The rise relied on emotions, while the pullback brought in transactions
Risk assets are waiting for 'true easing', but the policy only provided an 'observation period'
In this environment, the most rational choice for the market has never been to continue rising,
but rather—to cleanse the restless bulls.
So what you see as a market crash is not an unexpected event,
but a delayed pricing correction.
I have always said a somewhat unpopular statement:
Truly valuable analysis does not tell you when to rise or fall, but tells you 'when not to act impulsively'.
Being able to maintain restraint during lively times,
and choosing defense when most people are bullish,
that is the state a trader who stays at the table for the long term should have.
Whether the market is right or not has never depended on shouting it out,
but rather on being verified by the market time and again.
Be a little low-key, take it slow,
let time speak for you, that is enough.
