Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading within the latest range, moving close to 90,000 USD while investors are cautiously assessing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) reduced interest rates for December and the impact on risk assets.
The price movement of BTC is approaching a key downward trend line, which may determine the next price direction. Meanwhile, institutional investment flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen only minor inflows, and Strategy is increasing its BTC holdings in its reserves.
The Fed's stance is stimulating Bitcoin consolidation.
The price of Bitcoin started the week on a bright note, extending weekend recovery into the first half of the week and standing above 92,600 USD on Tuesday.
However, momentum began to weaken on Wednesday, with BTC closing at 92,015 USD after the FOMC meeting.
In an action widely anticipated, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the FOMC meeting signaled a slowdown in cuts in January.
Additionally, policymakers anticipate a rate cut of only one-quarter percent for the overall year 2026, similar to the trend in September, which has lowered market expectations for two rate cuts and exerted short-term pressure on risky assets.
The Fed's cautious stance, along with disappointing Oracle earnings, has resulted in a risk-averse environment in the short term.
These factors are weighing on risky asset prices, with the highest market-cap crypto dropping to a low of 89,260 USD before recovering and closing above 92,500 USD on Thursday.
With no major economic data from the U.S. coming out, the crypto market will be watching the statements from FOMC members and the broader risk atmosphere to determine direction.
At the end of this week.
BTC is likely to move within the next range in the near term unless significant accelerating factors arise.
The Russia-Ukraine uncertainty is dragging down risky investment momentum.
In geopolitical terms, U.S. President Donald Trump is highly frustrated with Russia and Ukraine and does not want to talk anymore, his wife said on Thursday.
Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the U.S. is pressuring his country to cede land to Russia under an agreement to end the nearly four-year-long war.
These geopolitical tensions, along with the failure of peace negotiations, continue to affect the global risk atmosphere, limiting the demand for risky assets and helping Bitcoin swing within the next range this week.
Institutional demand is showing slight signs of recovery.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin is showing slight signs of improvement.
According to SoSoValue data, the Bitcoin spot ETF fund registered in the United States has net inflows of USD 237.44 million by Thursday, after the previous week had outflows of only USD 87.77 million, indicating that institutional investor interest has improved somewhat.
However, this week, net inflows remain low compared to mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, ETF inflows should increase significantly.
On the corporate side, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) disclosed on Monday that the company bought 10,624 Bitcoin, worth USD 962.7 million, from December 1 to 7, at an average price of USD 90,615 per coin.
Currently, the company holds a total of 660,624 BTC, worth a total of USD 49.35 billion, and Strategy still has the potential for additional fundraising, which could allow for a large Bitcoin purchase.
On-chain data indicates that selling pressure is beginning to ease.
CryptoQuant's weekly report on Wednesday indicated that selling pressure on Bitcoin is beginning to ease.
The report also notes that coin deposits to exchanges are decreasing as large holders are reducing their transfers of coins into the exchange market.
The chart below shows that the proportion of deposits from large holders has decreased from the 24-hour average peak of 47% in mid-November to 21% on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the average coin deposit size has decreased by 36% from 1.1 BTC on November 22 to just 0.7 BTC.
CryptoQuant summarizes that if selling pressure remains low, a temporary recovery could push Bitcoin's price up to 99,000 USD, which is seen as the lower boundary of the price range that On-chain traders hold as an average cost, which often becomes a major resistance during market downturns.
Following this point, the next key resistance is at 102,000 USD (one-year moving average) and 112,000 USD (the average On-chain cost price of traders).
Copper's research report also signals a positive outlook for Bitcoin, as the report indicates that BTC's 4-year cycle has not yet ended but has been replaced.
Since the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, it has shown a recurring cost return cycle, as illustrated in the graph below.
Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper, told FXStreet that since the Bitcoin Spot ETF has been launched, it has moved in a mini-cycle that recurs, where prices often drop to touch the cost and then bounce back up by about 70%.
Currently, BTC is trading near the cost of USD 84,000, which indicates the possibility that the price could move above USD 140,000 in the next 180 days.
If costs rise another 10-15%, similarly to previous cycles, further excess from historical peaks would place the target range at USD 138,000 to USD 148,000.
Will Bitcoin have a Santa Rally?
Bitcoin lost 17.67% in November, which disappointed traders, even though everyone expected a rally following the strong historical returns of this month (see CoinGlass data below).
However, December has always been a month that provides positive returns for this number one crypto, with an average return of 4.55%.
Looking at the quarterly data overall, the fourth quarter (Q4) is considered BTC's best time, with an average return of 77.38%.
However, in the last three months of 2025, performance remains disappointing as it is currently down 19%.
Is BTC forming a bottom?
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows that the price is supported near the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) at USD 85,809, with two consecutive green candlesticks appearing after a four-week downward correction that started in late October.
This week, BTC has traded slightly higher while maintaining levels above USD 92,400.
If BTC continues to recover, it could lead to the upward movement extending to the 50-week EMA at USD 99,182.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is at 40, pointing upwards and indicating reduced downward pressure. However, for this recovery trend to continue, RSI should move above the 50 level, which is the midpoint.
On the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at USD 94,253 (measured from the low in April at USD 74,508 to the all-time high of USD 126,199 in October) last Wednesday.
But on Thursday, BTC rebounded after testing the psychological support of USD 90,000 once again.
If BTC can break the downward trend line (connecting several highs since early October) and close above USD 94,253.
This resistance may extend the upward adjustment to the psychological level of USD 100,000.
RSI on the daily chart is moving steadily near the 50 level, which is the midpoint zone, indicating a lack of short-term momentum on both sides.
To maintain an upward trend, RSI should also move above this midpoint level.
While the MACD moving average index showed a bullish crossover at the end of November and continues to support a bullish outlook.
However, if BTC starts to correct downward again, the first key support will be at USD 85,569, which corresponds with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
