BTC 12.13 Afternoon Market Analysis
Mainly fluctuating and declining, prioritize short positions
1. Logical Support: Triple Resonance Suppression
- Major Funds: Yesterday, 93000 shorted to 90000 to complete arbitrage, today's volume shrinks, weekend liquidity is low, making strong rebounds difficult.
- Technical Analysis: 93000-93500 is strong resistance, 4-hour moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, volume-price divergence, and the upper Bollinger Band is clearly restrictive.
- Fundamental Analysis: The dollar index has declined but risk appetite has cooled, institutions have lowered short-term targets, and there is no positive driver for an upward attack.
2. Trend Qualitative: Short-term fluctuation and decline
- Range Determination: Core range 90000-93000 from 15:00 to 17:30, with strong resistance at 93000 and strong support at 90000.
- Breakout Implications: A breakout above 93000 with volume could reach 94000-94500; a drop below 90000 could likely test 89000-89500.
- Pattern Signals: 4-hour evening star, weak rebound momentum, and the main tone is a fluctuating decline.
3. Practical Goals: Precise range trading, strict risk control
- Strategy 1 (Recommended): Primarily short positions
- Entry: Short in batches at 92500-93000
- Stop Loss: 93300 (+300 points)
- Take Profit: 90500-90000 (profit about 2000-2500 points)
- Reason: 93000 is yesterday's high point and a psychological level, with concentrated trapped positions; liquidity is weak during the European session's tail segment, making it easy to bear pressure.
- Strategy 2 (Conservative): Low long positions as assistance
- Entry: Long in batches at 89800-90200
- Stop Loss: 89500 (-300 points)
- Take Profit: 91500-92000 (profit about 1000-1500 points)
- Reason: 90000 is a round number, with support near yesterday's low point; do not bottom-fish unless there is a significant breakout.
- Strategy 3 (Aggressive): Range arbitrage
- Operation: Short at 92500-93000, long at 89800-90200, each order with a stop loss of 300 points, target each 1000-1500 points
