Many people use Fibonacci to calculate a precise rebound point.

But as long as you hold this intention, it is likely to lead you to losses.

Draw the retracement lines, keep an eye on 0.618 and 0.786, and place an order as soon as the price reaches them —

this is not trading, it's applying a formula to the market.

What truly determines whether the market can continue to trend is never the ratio, but the quality of the retracement process.

The premise must be clear:

There must first be a phase of very clean, smooth, and almost hesitation-free unidirectional movement.

If the original rise is repeatedly pulled back and the structure is chaotic, then retracing to any ratio has no trading value.

When the price falls from a high point, what you should look at is not whether it has reached 61.8%,

but rather — after reaching this area, does the market provide a reaction?

A healthy retracement usually has several characteristics:

Quickly pulled back after a dip, with no further expansion of the lows;

No continuous entities pushing down during the retracement process;

The rebound might not be strong, but the structure remains intact.

However, once this situation occurs:

The retracement repeatedly breaks through structural levels,

Each rebound becomes weaker,

The entity's decline shows obvious continuity —

then regardless of whether it happens to land on 0.618 or 0.786, it's just a natural process of weakening trend.

So, the true use of Fibonacci is not to forecast,

but to help you focus your attention on a range to judge:

Is this retracement a correction or a reversal?

Only when the trend is clear, the retracement rhythm is reasonable, and key positions can regain stability,

does the ratio have meaning.

Otherwise, it is just a set of lines drawn on the chart.

I am Uncle Yao, with more practical ideas in the chat room. #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察