Don't let the "itch tax" cut you off from the circle

Last night at 11 PM, my childhood friend Ahao sent a WeChat message: "I'm done, there's only 0.37 ETH left in my account."

I replied with "deserved it," and he instantly responded with three knife emojis.

Knowing him for five years, I've seen him go from 300,000 to 3 million, then back to square one overnight, the cause boils down to three words: itchy hands.

The story is too typical: On Wednesday night, BTC broke through 108k, he thought it was slow, and leveraged 50 times to chase MINI, but as soon as he opened the position, the market surged, and his account instantly increased by 80%. I reminded him, "Don't trade during a trend change," and he replied, "What’s there to be afraid of?"

As a result, at 2 AM, the project team stopped updating on Twitter, resulting in a direct liquidation with a -42% drop.

I tossed him the "six-character anti-itch ointment" from my secret stash, and I'll share it with you:

1️⃣ Don’t act before a trend change.

On December 10th, ETH stayed around 3k±1% for a full 20 hours. I resisted the urge to act, and the next day, it broke through 3.2k on increased volume, yielding a 12% profit, while Ahao got shaken out early.

2️⃣ Don’t be reckless in a choppy market.

On-chain data: In the past 30 days, BTC fluctuated between 96k-108k repeatedly, with a win rate of only 38% for high-frequency trading, and transaction fees at a loss of 3.2%. Sleeping soundly actually outperformed 80% of people.

3️⃣ Slide down the big slope.

After three consecutive daily red candles, the rebound probability is 68%. On the 9th, I placed BTC orders in batches at the end of the bearish candlestick, and on the 11th, I took profit in the morning on a bullish candlestick, making 8% in three days, much better than chasing the rise.

4️⃣ Pick up the bargains only during sharp declines.

Last night, MINI crashed -35% in three minutes. I placed a buy order 8% lower than the market price, and two hours after the transaction, it rebounded 22%, recovering half of Ahao's losses directly.

5️⃣ Pyramid stacking positions.

Always start with 50% in spot positions, increase by 10% after a 5% rise, and also add 10% after a 5% drop, leaving at least 30% before running out of bullets. I built up my SOL position from 140 to 180, doubling my investment while still awake.

6️⃣ Watch the extreme market conditions.

Last week, a certain MEME coin surged 300% in five minutes. I waited until it dropped 50% before testing a small position, and that day, the volatility was over 200%, but my account only touched 6%, yet I could still sleep well.

Remember: Markets are daily, but capital is not always available.

Control your hands, replace "chasing highs and killing lows" with "waiting for confirmation," and you can turn into an old veteran rather than just a backdrop for quitting.

Scan the QR code below to add me for easier communication in the Binance chat room.