After watching the market for eight years, my deepest insight can be summed up in four words: Less advice, more waiting.
Last year at this time, a young man named Xiao Lin found me, holding 5000U in his hands, looking anxious and asking me: 'Sister, can this money turn around?'
I looked at the densely packed market software on his phone screen, and it felt like I was seeing myself eight years ago. Back then, I also thought there were endless opportunities in the market, wanting to stare at the screen 24 hours a day, afraid of missing any chance to get rich quickly.
I had Xiao Lin divide his funds into two parts: 3000U to trade Bitcoin fluctuations, and another 2000U locked in a wallet as 'emergency money.' At that time, he nodded vigorously, but within two weeks, after Bitcoin had just risen by 20%, his messages came flooding in: 'Should I sell? Will it pull back? How about I sell half first?'
I replied to him, "The on-chain data is okay, let's wait and see." As a result, he secretly sold half in the middle of the night, and three days later Bitcoin surged by 30%, leaving him regretting. From then on, he was truly willing to listen to me.
Later, when SOL had good news, I told him to try with 1000U, taking profits at 30%. Half a month later, SOL rose by 40%, and he excitedly said he wanted to increase his position for a bigger gamble. I advised him not to be greedy and to cash out part first. He hesitated for half a day and took no action, and then SOL suddenly retraced by 15%, which startled him, and he hurriedly took profits according to plan. Although he didn't sell at the highest point, he still made 300U.
The most ridiculous thing was that once he heard a friend boasting that a certain altcoin was going to skyrocket and came to ask for my opinion. I told him to check the project white paper and the token unlocking plan himself, but he found it troublesome and just said, "Everyone is buying it, it should be fine to follow the trend."
I didn't persuade him anymore. As expected, a week later that coin plummeted by 50%, Xiaolin lost 800U, and when he came to find me again, his voice was trembling.
Later, I helped him readjust his strategy, focusing on Bitcoin trading, and it took three months to recoup the losses. Now his account is close to 68,000U, yet he still asks me daily, "Will it rise or fall tomorrow?" I usually just reply with five words: "Operate according to the rules."
The hardest thing in the cryptocurrency space is not analyzing the market, but controlling your hands and mouth.
1. Why I choose to "advise less"
Once, I was also keen to share analyses in the group, staying up late to write market interpretations. Later, I found that most people just want a code and do not care about the logic behind it.
Xiaolin thinks he earned money because of luck, but panics when he loses. He will never understand that I spend whole nights reviewing similar patterns from the past three years to determine whether a signal is reliable.
Once he brought a friend to find me and asked, "Which coin will rise recently?" I replied, "Not sure," and the other person immediately changed their expression. It's not that I'm unsympathetic, but I know too well—they only want to pick up ready-made answers but are unwilling to put in the effort to learn. Just like in childhood exams, the poor students only want the answers, while the top students will thoroughly study the problem-solving process.
After hanging around in the cryptocurrency space for a long time, you'll understand one principle: real opportunities are those that come to you, not those you chase. Those "experts" sharing their trades on social platforms are either looking to take advantage of others or haven't figured things out themselves.
2. The wisdom of "waiting more" has allowed me to survive for eight years.
In these eight years, I have seen too many fleeting "crypto gods"; their stories are usually very exciting, but the endings are often the same. Those who can survive in this market are not the smartest, but the most patient.
A rapid rise followed by a slow drop often indicates that the main force is quietly accumulating. Last year, when Bitcoin rose from 80,000 to 10,000, many people rushed to take profits, missing the later rise to 20,000. Real main force accumulation usually involves a rapid rise followed by a slow drop, with trading volume gradually shrinking, just like climbing stairs; each pullback does not break the previous low.
High-level shrinking volume is often more dangerous than expanding volume. When prices hover at historical highs for more than a week while trading volume shrinks by more than half, it often signals a sharp drop. Just like when Bitcoin surged to 69,000 in 2021 and hovered for 10 days with decreasing volume, it eventually fell to 30,000.
Bottom volume must be continuous. Single-day volume may likely be a test by market makers; continuous volume for three days or more is a real bottom. Last year when Bitcoin fell to 16,000, it only truly bottomed and rebounded after five consecutive days of volume.
What I taught Xiaolin was not specific buying and selling points, but how to recognize the language of the market. Unfortunately, he still often can't control his hands, which is why I am increasingly reluctant to give specific advice—knowing doesn't equate to doing; emotional management is the ultimate threshold.
3. My trading philosophy: Let the rules speak, let time validate.
Now my trading system is very simple:
Position management is the first rule of survival. No single coin's position should exceed 30%, take profits in batches after making gains, and decisively cut losses when in the red. It's like wearing a seatbelt in a car—maybe you’ll never need it, but using it once can save your life.
Look at the market less, review more. Frequently checking the market only disrupts one's mindset; I fixed my market checks to three times a day, and during other times, I do what I need to do. The market always has opportunities, but your capital is limited.
Reject impulsive trading. Before placing an order, ask yourself: does this signal align with my trading system? How much loss can I tolerate? Think it through before taking action.
Regular withdrawals for peace of mind. I withdraw 20% of my profits every month, allowing investment returns to truly enhance my quality of life. This is also why I have been able to survive in this market for eight years—surviving gives me the chance to seize the next opportunity.
Although Xiaolin's account now has 68,000U, I know he will continue to ask, "Will it rise tomorrow?" This is not his fault but a human instinct. In the crypto space, going against human nature can lead to profits, but it requires time and lessons to hone.
Finally, a few heartfelt words.
The loneliness in the cryptocurrency space is not that there is no one to discuss the market with, but that when you share your experience, the other party only takes away the "result," leaving you with a screen full of candlestick charts, with no one understanding the caution and restraint behind it.
Yet I still want to write these words because I believe there will always be someone who understands—investment is a form of cultivation, and the market is the best dojo.
If you have also felt lost and struggled in the cryptocurrency space, feel free to share your story in the comments. Perhaps we cannot predict whether tomorrow will rise or fall, but at least we can remind each other: control your hands, guard your heart, and slowly become rich.
After all, Buffett once said that no one is willing to get rich slowly. What we need to do is to be the few who are willing to wait.
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