1. Market Status: Stagnant market, both bulls and bears are holding back
Today's market can be described as a 'volatile consolidation', or to put it bluntly, it's boring to the point of bubbling. Bitcoin is hovering around $90,300, while Ethereum is even weaker, briefly dipping to $3,040, just a thin layer of paper away from the psychological level of $3,000.
The current market sentiment index is stuck at 29 (fear zone), and retail investors are waiting for tonight's CPI data to determine their fate. Interestingly, institutional funds are quietly accumulating—this month's net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs has reached a 7-week high, totaling over $1.36 billion. This indicates that large funds are not panicking; after a significant drop, they are buying the dip, which indeed provides some confidence for the medium to long term.
II. Key Variables: Is tonight's CPI a 'bomb' or 'fireworks'?
The CPI data announced tonight at 21:30 will be the trigger point for the short-term market. The market expects a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, but any deviation of 0.1% in the actual result could cause violent fluctuations.
If CPI is lower than expected: Bitcoin is likely to quickly hit the pressure zone of 93000-94000, or even test the 95000 mark. However, be aware that there is heavy selling pressure above, and do not chase high before a breakout with volume.
If CPI is higher than expected: Be cautious of spikes! Bitcoin may retest the support zone of 88500-89000, while Ethereum may test the 3000 USD mark. Whether it breaks or not depends on the 15-minute closing; don't be fooled by momentary fluctuations.
III. Technical Analysis: Bitcoin is in a 'flag formation', Ethereum is 'weak and fragile'
Bitcoin: The 4-hour chart has formed a narrowing triangle, with upper and lower boundaries at 93500 and 89000, respectively. The current price is stuck in the middle, RSI is close to neutral, typical of the night before a directional choice. My experience is that such patterns often lead to a short-term trend after a breakout, but false breakouts are also common, so be sure to set stop losses.
Ethereum: The trend is clearly weaker than Bitcoin; the 3150 support has been broken, and now we will see if 3000 USD can hold. If tonight's CPI is bearish, it is likely to test the 2900-2950 area. For those looking to bottom-fish in the short term, it is recommended to wait for a long lower shadow on the daily chart.
IV. Operation Idea: CPI before was cautious, CPI after is decisive
Before CPI (current until 21:30)
Position ≤ 30%, save bullets for the data;
Range traders can cautiously try longs in the 89000-89300 range (stop loss at 88500), and reduce positions if it rebounds to 93000-93500;
Those without positions shouldn’t get anxious; volatility may surge before the data, making it easy to get stopped out.
After CPI (from 21:30)
If the data is bullish and breaks 93500: If it retests 92000 without breaking, go long with a target of 94500-95000;
If the data is bearish and breaks 89000: Wait for a rebound to around 90000 to consider shorting, with a target of 87500;
The worst is being indecisive—set your plan in advance, don’t change your mind when the market arrives.
V. Personal Complaints and Reminders
Don't trust leverage: In the past 24 hours, the entire network exploded with 532 million USD, 75% of which were long positions. In events like CPI, high leverage is just asking for trouble.
Cautious bottom-fishing in Ethereum: Although the whale cost support is around 2500 USD, the short-term network 'finality' delay issue has not been resolved, and the technical outlook is bearish, so waiting for right-side signals is preferable.
The medium to long-term logic is not broken: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has just begun, and regulatory aspects are improving (for example, the U.S. is considering including Bitcoin in retirement plans); a drop may actually present a dollar-cost averaging opportunity.
Summary: Today is the 'sitting on the sidelines market'—holding out for CPI. Focus on two key levels: Bitcoin's 89000 support and 93500 resistance, and Ethereum's 3000 mark. Be cautious before a breakout, and decisive after; controlling your hands allows for long-term survival.
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