The HBAR price has seen little movement today. This follows a decline of about 29% over the past month. It has also dropped about 6% over the last week. The overall trend appears to be bearish. However, upon closer inspection, the situation is more complex. While demand from retail investors is weak, whale investors have made significant purchases over the last two days.
The combination of this bearishness and accumulation suggests that although the price action appears weak, there may be a potential bottom forming.
Weak demand… Bulk accumulation?
HBAR is still moving within a descending wedge pattern. The wedge pattern is mostly an upward signal indicating that selling pressure tends to weaken over time. However, within that wedge, a weaker movement has occurred. From December 7th to December 11th, the HBAR price formed higher lows, but OBV (On-Balance Volume) created lower lows.
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OBV is a cumulative volume indicator. OBV tracks whether funds are flowing into or out of the token. If the price creates a higher low but OBV falls, it means that buyers do not have enough strength to support the rebound. A bearish divergence occurs within the upward pattern.
Meanwhile, whales are showing very different behavior. Accounts holding at least 10 million HBAR have increased from 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts holding over 100 million HBAR have risen from 40.65 to 73.62. Even applying minimum criteria, whales have added approximately 3.42 billion HBAR within 48 hours. Based on the current price, this volume is at least 445 million dollars.
OBV only tracks the trading volume traded on exchanges. Large over-the-counter transactions or custody movements are not reflected in OBV, so some whale behaviors may go unnoticed. OBV is a better indicator of retail investors' interest.
This contradiction serves as the background for the following analysis. Whale investors are likely responding to deeper market signals.
Repeated signals that whales are paying attention to
From October 17th to December 11th, the price formed lower lows. Meanwhile, RSI (Relative Strength Index) formed higher lows. RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. If the price is falling but RSI is rising, a standard bullish divergence is formed. This type of divergence is closely related to trend reversals.
The same type of divergence appeared before past rebounds. This pattern was observed on December 1st and December 7th, with HBAR rebounding 15% and 12% respectively from the lows. Each rise paused at resistance lines; however, this time it appears alongside significant whale buying. This combination suggests that the current trend reversal attempt is more meaningful than previous rebounds within the wedge.
If the resistance line that blocked the previous rally is broken, this divergence could shift the entire structure from bearish to bullish. This may be the scenario that whales are preparing for.
Major price levels for HBAR
The HBAR price needs to break 0.159 dollars based on the daily closing price. This range has never been exceeded in previous rebound phases. Upon breaking this price, it will surpass the upper trend line of the wedge, allowing for additional upward potential towards 0.198 dollars and 0.219 dollars.
If the price weakens again, 0.122 dollars is a watch point. If it falls below this price, HBAR could drop again to the bottom of the wedge. This range has only been supported twice, which is a weak point. If this line breaks, recovery will be delayed, and it signals that the selling pressure still dominates the overall trend.
Currently, OBV shows weak demand, while RSI indicates a bullish signal. Whale investors have added about 3.42 billion HBAR at the lows. If HBAR breaks 0.159 dollars, the accumulation by whales could become a strong upward driver rather than just a background signal.
