Message update!

20251213

202405 MSTR was included in the MSCI index, at that time the BTC price was about 60k-65k, and MSTR BTC NAV was about 13.5 billion USD. At that time, the market anticipated a rate cut, followed by the Fed's first rate cut of 50 basis points in four years on 20240919, subsequently accompanied by a phased arc bottom pattern, BTC first broke 100k in 202412, and at the same time MSTR also surged to over 330.

In 202412, MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100, at that time the market: after BTC first broke 100k, it entered a high-level adjustment speculation area, then it fell to a low of 74k before bottoming out with 202504 and subsequently attacking to break through 120k by 202507.

👀｜On 20260115, it will be announced whether MSTR will be removed from MSCI. If removed, consider the overall liquidity tightness + BTC drop from 202512 to 202601 + emotional assessment of short-term impact. The so-called depth spiral of MSTR does not exist in the short term (mNAV (EV/NAV) and cash reserves can cover the number of months for interest dividends do not support short-term selling of coins), it is more of an emotional shock.

🧠 ｜ Reflexivity:

EV/NAV > 1 → Easier financing (ATM/Issuing preferred shares/CB) → Buy more BTC → In a strong market, more willing to give MSTR a premium (like BTC call options, assets wrapped in strong market equity are more elastic than the underlying assets themselves)