Family! The backend is being bombarded with the question: "Is the crypto market bullish or bearish now?"
When I first entered the market, I didn't believe in the "four-year cycle" until BTC plummeted from 126,000 to 94,000, and altcoins directly dropped by 70-80%. I finally understood that both bulls and bears are lessons learned from painful declines!
Last month, BTC was consolidating at 110,000, and some coins surged five to ten times in a single day, with community excitement comparable to the end of the bull market in 2021. Back then, I was criticized for warning about risks and being called a "bear dog," but looking back now, the peak of emotions had already buried the foreshadowing of a crash!
What's more critical is that this year's halving cycle has reached the 18th month. A look at historical data reveals that this is the key point where the market declines after a bull market!
BTC still has institutional support, but altcoins are in free fall due to a lack of buyers! The technical aspect is even more painful: both the 200-day and 365-day moving averages have been broken, with 72,000 becoming a death line!
Adding to this is the Fed's failed interest rate cuts and government shutdowns, causing market liquidity to become exceedingly tight. The so-called "Christmas rally" is nothing but a self-comforting illusion!
The year-end market is straightforward: there’s a high probability of oscillation in the 80,000-90,000 range; if it falls below 80,000, this round of the bull market will basically be declared over!
Remember: bull markets do not always rise, bear markets do not always fall, and the law of extremes must decline is an iron rule of the market! We are not at the end of the world now, but at the starting point of the next cycle!
Instead of getting tangled up in guessing the direction of bulls and bears, it’s better to maintain a light position and hold the line! The calmer the market, the hotter the opportunities; patiently waiting is far more reliable than chasing highs and selling lows!
If you currently have no direction, fear of missing out, and fear of being trapped, then let's plan together! The current market is a great opportunity for recovery and flipping, don’t miss the next wave of opportunities! @阿二说币
