Brothers, recently Tom Lee said that building a cash reserve of 1.4 billion for Strategy is a "wise move," which has reignited hope for many retail investors. But after looking at the data, it’s clear this is not a wise move; it’s clearly the last straw for drowning people. Let's not be fooled by the four words "cash reserve"; let's do the math clearly.
📊 Valuation trap: The illusion of a market cap below bitcoin holdings
Strategy has a market cap of 59 billion and holds bitcoins worth 62.3 billion. On the surface, it looks like a negative premium, as if it’s a great bargain. But brothers, wake up! This 62.3 billion is based on the current bitcoin price; if it falls below 90,000, this number will shrink. More critically, Strategy is heavily in debt, recording a net loss of 1.167 billion in 2025 alone, with several billion in convertible bonds to repay.
Let’s compare: A healthy company's cash/debt ratio should be greater than 1, but Strategy's 1.44 billion cash reserve faces tens of billions in debt and preferred stock dividends. It’s like saying you have reserves when you owe 100,000 on your credit card but only have 500 in your pocket. How long can that last? With the new MSCI regulations, starting January 2026, companies with over 50% in crypto assets will be kicked out of the index, and Strategy's bitcoin holdings have already exceeded 90%. This is the rhythm of being collectively abandoned by institutional investors.
🔪 Chip bomb: 650,000 bitcoins as the "Sword of Damocles"
Strategy holds 650,000 bitcoins, with an average cost of about 33,000; the current price is around 90,000, showing a paper profit of nearly 20 billion. But brothers, don’t celebrate too early. Last month, when bitcoin fell below 95,000, Strategy dropped 32% in a month, evaporating 30 billion in market cap. More critically, the MSCI new regulations will force index funds to liquidate before January 2026, equivalent to 20% of the circulating supply being sold off.
Early investors' cost was only tens of thousands, and now even with a halving, they still have 50% profit. Do you think this "smart money" will wait for you to break even? Historical data speaks: In 2022, when bitcoin crashed, Strategy was forced to sell part of its bitcoins, leading to a 20% drop in stock price in a single day. This 1.44 billion reserve, calculated with interest and dividends of 200 million per month, can last at most 7 months. What happens after 7 months? Either sell the coins or go bankrupt.
🌪️ Trading script: Cash reserves are a smokescreen, not a lifebuoy
Tom Lee said this is a "wise move," but after digging into the data, it was found that Strategy announced the establishment of a 1.44 billion reserve on December 1, and the stock price plummeted by 12% that day. Why? Because the market saw through this tactic. Where did this 1.44 billion come from? It was raised by selling stocks! It’s like robbing Peter to pay Paul, using the money from new investors to pay dividends to old investors.
The irony is that while Strategy claims "never to sell coins," it has first indicated it might "sell coins," leading to a 12% drop in the market. Isn’t this a typical script of "first making promises, then cutting the retail investors"? The real purpose of building cash reserves is to buy time for MSCI’s removal, allowing institutions to slowly exit. Look at BitMine, which holds 12 billion in Ethereum but does not build a dollar reserve. Why? Because staking Ethereum yields returns while bitcoin just sits idle. Strategy's "cash reserve" is essentially a delaying tactic, not a solution.
Suggestions from Akong:
If you are a shareholder of MSTR hanging out on the mountaintop:
Run quickly! Don’t believe in the nonsense of "long-term holding." MSCI removal is a ticking time bomb; in 7 months, the cash reserves will be exhausted, and you’ll either sell coins or go bankrupt. Selling now might still allow you to exchange for some bitcoin, but by January next year, when institutions collectively sell off, there won't be anything left.
Those who want to gamble but have no goods on hand:
Wake up, brothers; this stock is no longer an investment; it’s a gamble for survival. MSTR's mNAV (market cap to bitcoin value ratio) has dropped to 0.95, a historic low, indicating that the market no longer believes in the logic of "bitcoin = company value." Buying in at this position is not brave; it’s ignorant.
Onlookers enjoy the show:
Remember this classic case: When a company starts emphasizing "cash reserves" instead of business growth, it’s basically a doomsday signal. The DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) model has collapsed; a market cap washout of 600 billion in six weeks is no joke. Instead of watching MSTR struggle to survive, it’s better to study projects that actually have cash flow.
Lastly, here’s a painful truth: Strategy has transformed from a software company into a bitcoin "central bank," and now into a "cash reserve dependency syndrome." This is not transformation; it’s slow suicide. Bitcoin price fluctuations are not risks; they are the lifeblood of the DAT companies. Once the MSCI new regulations are implemented in January 2026, these DAT companies will either transform or go to zero. Retail investors, don’t become the bag holders; the real opportunity lies elsewhere.
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