Brothers, today I saw a bunch of people in the square sharing screenshots of "Deposit USDD to earn 50U monthly" and I almost sprayed the coffee I just drank. These days, even the scythes dare to shine brightly, right? Let's not be blinded by high returns, today A Kong will help you peel back the layers of USDD to see what's really hidden inside.
📊 Valuation Bubble: Is 13.89% annualized a pie or a trap?
Let's do some math first, don't be fooled by "earning 50U monthly." With an annualized rate of 13.89%, depositing 100U only yields 0.038U a day, and in 30 days that's only 1.14U. Do you believe this little money is enough to cover your transfer Gas fee? Not to mention those bragging about "depositing 100U to earn 50U monthly," that would require an annualized rate of 1800%! Is Sun Ge trying to open a bank for you or what?
Let's compare the real market situation again: Traditional bank savings accounts offer 0.3%, Binance's USDC savings accounts offer 8%, and USDe's reward program offers 12%. This 13.89% for USDD seems high, but what about the risk premium? USDC has Circle's endorsement, USDe has Ethena's hedging mechanism, but what about USDD? It relies solely on Sun's mouth and the "decentralized over-collateralization" PPT.
What's even more magical is that the FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of USDD is approaching $1 billion, but how much actual collateral does it have? On-chain data shows that the collateralization ratio of USDD has long hovered around 150%, and behind the claimed "over-collateralization," TRX accounts for over 70%. What is the market for TRX? When it plummeted 60% last year, USDD depegged to 0.85. Can you trust a "stablecoin" that has 70% of its collateral in volatile assets to be stable as a mountain?
🔪 Chip structure: Sun's cost vs your principal
The key point is here; let's dig into the chip structure of USDD. According to TronScan data, the total supply of USDD is about 2.5 billion pieces, of which:
- Early team allocation: 30% (cost nearly zero)
- Mining rewards: 40% (cost about 0.8U)
- Public sale: 30% (cost about 0.95U)
Now the price of USDD is 1U, early team profits are 100 times, mining users profit 25%, and only the last retail investors are recharging their faith. What's scarier is that the address controlled by Sun holds over 500 million USDD, calculating at a cost of 0.8U, with a paper profit of 100 million U.
Do you know what this means? It means that for every increase of 0.1U, Sun can earn an additional 50 million U. Under this chip structure, high-yield activities are not a "benefit," but a buffer prepared for large-scale sell-offs! Historically, USDD has depegged three times, and each time it was Sun who used his own money to save the market; this time is no exception—he didn’t dare to run during Binance’s activity, but what about after the event ends?
🌪️ Trading strategy: The "win-win" situation between Binance and Sun
Now let's talk about why Binance is willing to cooperate with Sun. On the surface, it's to offer users high yields, but in reality, it's a three-party game:
1. Binance: Uses USDD activities to fill the wallet ecosystem, making the TVL data look good, while also earning transaction fees. But look, this time the TVL of this activity is only 5.2 million, far lower than the 100 million+ of USDC's activities, indicating that old retail investors understand the "Sun consensus"—"Sun's words can be listened to, but Sun's coins should not be touched."
2. Sun: Uses Binance's endorsement to stabilize USDD's price while transferring USDD liquidity from the Tron ecosystem to Binance's wallet, reducing depeg risk. He has recently been shouting on Twitter that "USDD is the next-generation stablecoin," but on-chain data shows that USDD's circulation on Tron has decreased by 35%, indicating he urgently needs new retail investors to take over.
3. Retail investors: have become the fuel for this game. High-yield promotions attract newcomers, but actual returns are negligible. Ironically, USDD’s activities require you to first exchange USDT for USDD. After this operation, just the exchange slippage and gas fees can eat away 20% of your profits.
Isn't this just a typical "first use high yields to lure in, then use celebrity effect to stabilize, and finally let retail investors take over" three-step approach? Sun was forced to spend 500 million to save the market due to TUSD's depegging in 2024; now with USDD's collateral assets being even less transparent, why can he stabilize it this time?
Akon's operating suggestion:
If you are hanging on the mountaintop in the wind:
Run quickly! Don't wait for USDD to depeg to 0.8. Sun spent 500 million to save TUSD; what about USDD? Just last month, 3.3 billion was taken by Hong Kong Trust, and now he can hardly protect himself. Remember, stablecoin depegging is not a matter of "if," but "when."
Those who have no goods but want to gamble:
Wake up, brother. Storing 10,000 U earns only 3.8 U a day, which isn’t even enough for your taxi to Starbucks. If you really want to invest, USDC's savings account offers 8% more stability, or directly buy government bonds. Investing in USDD at this position isn't an investment; it's fueling Sun's yacht.
Onlookers:
Just watch the show and record the timing of USDD's depeg. History is always strikingly similar: TUSD depegged in January 2024, USDD first depegged in July 2024, and now in December 2025, USDD is playing with fire again. When it depegs again, you will know at what point to bottom out TRX—oh no, wait, you should stay far away.
Lastly, let me say something heart-wrenching: Sun himself said, "If you want to make money off me, I want to make money off you, so there’s no question of who is cutting whom; it's just a game of competition." But the question is, are you holding a sickle or are you the chives? In this game, retail investors are always the variable that gets harvested. High yields are always accompanied by high risks, and the risk of USDD has long surpassed its returns.