To be honest, yesterday I saw the take-profit position analysis of Half Wood Summer, I looked at the on-chain data three times, and my palms were all sweaty.
It's not about being afraid of the rise, it's about you being dazzled by the number '98,000'.
When the profit-loss ratio collapses, it collapses; don’t gamble your life on probability.
💰 Calculate the details: a collapse in the profit-loss ratio is more deadly than a price collapse.
Don't just drool over the $8,000 space; first calculate the risk-reward ratio.
89,000 people entering: target 98,000 to earn 10%, stop loss at 87,000 to lose 2.2%, profit-loss ratio 4.5:1——equivalent to winning once can bear losing twice.
What about the 90,000 people entering? Target 98,000 to earn 8.3%, but what about the stop loss?
Breaking below 90,000 support, the next strong support is at 85,000, which means the stop-loss should be set below 3.9%.
Result: The profit-loss ratio directly smashed to 2.1:1.
What concept?
Based on 5 years of practical experience, trades with a profit-loss ratio below 3:1 will inevitably fail long-term.
Assuming your win rate is 60% (already top-level):
- Profit-loss ratio 3:1: 10 trades net profit of 140%
- Profit-loss ratio 2:1: 10 trades only leave 80%
- Profit-loss ratio 1.5:1: directly halved to 50%
BTC's daily fluctuation of 3%-5% is common; are you setting a 1.1% stop-loss?
It's like putting your principal into a shredder while helping the dealer ignite.
🔪 Chip slaughter: The scythe of hundredfold profits is already hanging over your head.
You only see the K-line turning red, but you haven't seen the sleeping whales on-chain collectively open their eyes.
Early players entering at 89,000 have a cost 11,000 lower than yours, starting with a profit of 11.2%.
Who are these people?
Miners, institutions, smart money— they are not here to play house with you.
Looking at historical data: At the 69,000 peak in June 2021, over 70% of profit positions were smashed within three months.
What about now?
Near 90,000, over 120,000 BTC of 'floating profit chips' are piled up; once it breaks below 90,000 support, these goods are enough to smash through two floors.
Think about it: Would you wait a year to claim your lottery winnings?
Whales have already calculated the accounts — the 98,000 take-profit point is their ATM, while your high entry at 90,000 is just caught at the throat of the selling price.
🌪️ Celebrity smoke bomb: The take-profit point is the last firework to entice buying.
Halfwood Xia's call at 98,000 take-profit appears to be a divine analysis, but at its core is a classic selling script.
On-chain liquidity data contradicts: At the current 90,000 price, the buy order depth is only 8,000 BTC, but the sell orders have piled up to 23,000 BTC.
What does it mean?
For every 10,000 dollars you rush in, the slippage can eat away 8% of your principal; the dealer hopes you rush in to be the bag holder.
What's even harsher is the celebrity effect routine:
Historically reviewing 10 celebrity calling events, they average back to zero within 72 hours.
In 2022, Musk's Twitter manipulated DOGE, evaporating 40% in 3 days — the hype dissipated faster than the K-line collapsed.
What about this time?
"Take-profit point" is a smoke bomb, leading retail investors to mistakenly believe "there's still room," but in reality, it locks the stop-loss point in a liquidity vacuum.
The moment you rush in, you are already standing on the slaughter table of the dealer.
A Kong's operational advice:
If you are stuck at the 90,000 peak, blowing in the wind:
Don't dream of breaking even; a rebound to 91,000 is a gift from heaven.
Cutting losses hurts for three days, holding on until it hits zero hurts for three years.
Liquidity is evaporating, and running now can exchange for a life.
Those who want to rush in without holding goods are gambling weirdos:
Weld your hands to the keyboard and don't move.
A bad account with a profit-loss ratio of 2.1:1 is worse than a casino roulette.
Really want to play?
Wait for a pullback to 87,000 to calculate again — the stop-loss space must be enough for 3%, and the profit-loss ratio must return to 3:1; otherwise, you are just a philanthropist bringing warmth to the dealer.
Bystanders squatting and waiting to pick up leaks:
Keep an eye on large on-chain transfers.
When the whale address moves, immediately follow the trend and smash stop-loss orders.
Remember: The market never pays for emotions; it only rewards those who can calculate their accounts clearly.
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