Itaú Unibanco Holding SA, Latin America's largest private bank, advises its customers to allocate up to 3% of their portfolios in Bitcoin by 2026.
Banks do not view cryptocurrency as a speculative asset, but rather as a protection against the Brazilian real losing value.
Why Itau wants customers' money in Bitcoin
In a strategy note, analysts at the bank in São Paulo state that investors face two challenges: uncertain global prices and fluctuating exchange rates. They argue that this requires a new way to build portfolios.
The bank recommends that the weight for Bitcoin should be between 1% and 3%, in order to achieve returns that do not follow national cycles.
"Bitcoin is an asset that differs from fixed income securities, common stocks, or domestic markets. It has its own dynamics, return potential, and acts, thanks to its global and decentralized nature, as a hedge against currency fluctuations," writes the bank.
Itaú emphasizes that Bitcoin should not be a foundation in the portfolio. The bank views the asset as a complement, where the size is adjusted according to the investor's risk tolerance.
The goal is to achieve returns that are not driven by the local economic situation and to protect against currency devaluation. The bank also wants customers to maintain the possibility of long-term value appreciation.
The bank points out that there is low correlation between Bitcoin and traditional asset classes. They argue that a distribution of 1% to 3% increases risk diversification without making the overall portfolio risk too large.
The bank states that this strategy requires moderation, discipline, and a long-term perspective. One should not react to rapid price changes.
"Trying to perfectly time investments in assets like Bitcoin or in foreign markets is risky — and often misguided," warns the bank.
Itaú sets the cap for Bitcoin at 3%, which aligns with the most forward-looking global advice and approaches the levels of American banks.
Large banks in the USA, such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, have suggested that their clients can allocate up to 4% of their assets to this digital asset.
For Brazilian investors, however, the situation looks different.
Itaú believes that in a world with shorter economic cycles and more unexpected shocks, Bitcoin's "hybrid nature" stands out compared to traditional assets.
The bank describes Bitcoin both as a high-risk asset and a global store of value. They argue that this combination can provide a resilience that fixed income investments currently lack.
