Japan's interest rate hike has become a certainty
On Polymarket, the probability of Japan's interest rate hike has reached 98%. When people vote with their money, they are seriously analyzing the likelihood of Japan's interest rate hike, and a 98% probability is beyond doubt.
The last time the yen was raised, cryptocurrency plummeted due to the significant increase in rates; at that time, Japan had just emerged from a negative interest rate era and was hit with a strong dose right away.
This time, a 25 basis point increase in Japan's interest rate is expected, and the impact on the market will be reduced. Since the last interest rate hike, the yen's arbitrage positions or hot money's initial positions have begun to decline, so a 25 basis point increase is basically within expectations.
However, if it exceeds 25 basis points and reaches 50 or even 75 basis points, the market will still plummet.