$XRP
Japan's interest rate hike on December 19 = has all the bad news been priced in? Will the Christmas market explode? Is the cryptocurrency circle preparing to bottom out?
Last time, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike directly hit the cryptocurrency market with a heavy blow—bBTC plunged 23% on the same day, leading to a bloodbath in leveraged positions and a market cap evaporation of over a hundred billion. The scene still makes me feel uneasy when I think about it! However, this time, the December 19 monetary policy meeting is likely to reverse the script; the bad news has already been digested by the market in advance, combined with the Christmas market window period, the cryptocurrency circle may soon receive a buy signal?
Old investors understand that the core of the last plunge was the unexpected nature: yen carry trade funds flocking to the cryptocurrency market, and after the interest rate hike, the cost of financing surged, forcing concentrated liquidations that triggered a sell-off. But this time it’s completely different; the market has already cleared the risks in advance, and speculators have early positioned themselves as yen bulls, with the crowding of carry trades significantly reduced, leaving no momentum for sudden liquidations. Furthermore, Japanese government bond yields have already been gradually rising, and the impact of the interest rate hike has been diluted over time, so we will not see a flash crash like last time.
More importantly, the Federal Reserve is also providing support from behind! The recently implemented 25 basis point rate cut, combined with the released easing signals, has provided a crucial liquidity buffer for global risk assets. It’s important to note that what the market fears is not the certain bad news, but rather the uncertainty that cannot be grasped. Now, the expectations for Japan's interest rate hike are almost fully priced in, and once the December 19 event occurs, it may instead become a turning point for the market.
Smart money has already quietly moved! On-chain data shows that whales have started to buy against the trend, and highly volatile narrative assets have also become active first. After all, historically, around Christmas, liquidity tends to be looser, combined with a phase of macro bad news being cleared, market sentiment is recovering, and the previously suppressed market may explode taking advantage of this opportunity.
Is this really the end of the bad news, and will the Christmas market arrive as scheduled? Or will it rise and then fall again? Are you planning to take the opportunity to bottom out mainstream coins, or bet on potential narrative assets?