12.14 BTC Afternoon Market Analysis
I. Logical Support
1. Macroeconomic Negative Pressure: On 12.13, the U.S. Treasury 20/30-year yield broke 4.8%, combined with a collective decline in European and American stock markets, leading to increased risk aversion in risk assets, with BTC being dragged down as a high-volatility asset; the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, liquidity expectations are tightening, further suppressing the price elasticity of cryptocurrencies.
2. Technical Short Dominance: The hourly chart has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is opening downwards, with the MACD fast and slow lines deeply entrenched below the zero axis, and short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement, indicating weak rebound potential; the 4-hour level is at the end of convergence consolidation, with a window for a trend change opening, but bearish signals dominate.
3. Market Liquidity Exhaustion: Recently, the market has frequently “painted doors,” with weakened long and short battles, insufficient active transactions, making it difficult to support an effective rebound, likely continuing a weak oscillation downward rhythm.
II. Trend Qualitative Analysis
Short-term (as of 17:30) oscillation is slightly bearish, with a core operating range of 89500-90500, likely to first suppress and then exhibit weak oscillation, with a higher probability of testing key support downwards than breaking upwards. No bullish reversal signals have emerged at the end of the convergence, with macroeconomic and technical resonance being bearish, making it difficult to break the upper resistance without clear incremental capital entering the market.
III. Practical Goals (Precise Entry + Risk Control)
1. Short Strategy (Priority):
- Entry: Light position entry in the 90200-90400 range, if the hourly chart breaks below 89800, increase the position (confirming the break);
- Take Profit: First target 89500, second target 89200 (if not reached by 17:30, take profit at observed level);
2. Long Strategy (Cautious):
- Entry: Only enter a light position when a bullish engulfing candle + MACD bottom divergence appears in the 89500-89600 range;
- Take Profit: 90000-90200 (reduce immediately upon pressure, no prolonged battle)
