After experiencing the fluctuations brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week, there are a few points to pay attention to in the market next week:
1. The non-farm payroll data will be released on Tuesday at 21:30, marking the first timely macro data release in over two months. According to the normal process, non-farm payroll data is released on the first Friday of each month. This time, it was postponed again to avoid overlapping with the FOMC meeting. Although it's two weeks late, it's much better than the previous two-month delay. The significance of this data lies not in the value itself, but in whether it can provide the first round of reality calibration for the market sentiment following this week's interest rate cut.
2. On Thursday at 21:30, CPI data will be released. Similar to the non-farm payroll data, this timely data can quickly adjust the sentiment due to this week's interest rate cut. As a core indicator of inflation, it will directly affect the market's reassessment of whether 'this round of rate cuts is too early.'
3. On Friday, Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates. The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, will hold a monetary policy press conference at 14:30. However, because the expectations have been priced in for a long time, the market has basically digested the expectation of a rate hike in Japan. After the news, it might even turn from negative to positive. What really needs attention is the expression of the subsequent policy path, rather than a single rate action.
4. Broadcom has significantly corrected, and US Treasury yields rebounded, which has put short-term pressure on the AI sector. Next week, the focus should not be on whether there will be an immediate rebound, but rather on whether there are signs of sentiment and valuation repair that will determine if funds are willing to flow back in.
5. Silver has reached a historical high, while gold hovers near the historical high of $4382. This is a typical dual logic of safe-haven and anti-inflation. The key is not in the directional judgment, but whether there are risks of profit-taking and amplified volatility in the short term.
6. As the year-end approaches, fund managers are under performance assessment pressure. Locking in annual profits and reducing portfolio volatility to beautify reports is a typical behavior pattern on Wall Street. If macro data performs poorly next week, risk appetite may remain low for the following two weeks, leading to reduced market volatility.
