Bitcoin enters a new week under clear macroeconomic pressure. Leading market analysts warn of heightened risk of sharp price movements. The decision of the Bank of Japan and the situation in the derivatives market may be crucial.
The last few days have brought a coordinated sell-off in financial markets. Bitcoin, stocks, and technology indices moved in the same direction. This is a signal that investors are reacting to common global factors rather than local events.
Leading analysts warn: Macroeconomic pressure has hit Bitcoin hard.
Lark Davis, a well-known commentator and educator in the cryptocurrency market, highlights the actions of the Bank of Japan. Investors may already be pricing in an upcoming interest rate hike. The BOJ's decision is expected on December 19.
According to forecasts, interest rates in Japan could reach levels not seen since 1995. Importantly, the central bank signals further hikes in 2026. This increases the risk of investors retreating from carry trade strategies in yen. Leading analyst Lark Davis shared in his post on X:
"The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on December 19 for the first time in 11 months, which could lead to interest rates reaching levels not seen in Japan since 1995. They also suggest that further hikes are likely in 2026. When the Bank of Japan last raised interest rates, the cryptocurrency market experienced a crash."
In the past, such processes led to capital outflows from risky assets. Bitcoin reacted to this with declines. This time, as Davis points out, the market is not waiting for a decision. Pressure is already visible now. Davis concluded his post in a cool tone:
"But this time the market is not waiting. It is already on the edge and preparing for the hit. Another week full of fluctuations is ahead, so be cautious."
Last week, Bitcoin lost about 2.4%. The declines also affected Nasdaq and Ethereum. Such synchronization suggests a defensive attitude among investors. Therefore, another volatile week for Bitcoin may bring further tests of support levels.
Leading Bitcoin analysts also draw attention to the derivatives market. TedPillows, a trader and cryptocurrency market analyst, points to a significant decline in open Bitcoin positions. Following the rise after the crash on October 10, positions are now being closed. This is a result of increasing volatility and a lack of clear direction.
According to Pillows, as long as open positions are not fully reset, Bitcoin will not show a decisive trend. This increases the risk of sharp but short-lived movements. The leading Bitcoin analyst wrote in his statement on X:
"Open positions in BTC are now being wiped out. After the crash on October 10, Bitcoin's OI increased and is now being closed. This is due to heightened volatility on both sides recently. In my opinion, until OI is fully reset, BTC will not show a clear movement."
Additionally, Lookonchain, an on-chain analytical platform, reports on the actions of a large wallet. One of the whales exchanged nearly 2000 BTC for Ethereum. Although this does not unequivocally indicate a bear market, it shows a rotation of capital.
Bitcoin is at a point of heightened uncertainty. Macro pressure, leverage reset, and selective movements by large players create a difficult investment environment. As leading analysts emphasize, in such an environment, another volatile week for Bitcoin requires caution, risk management, and a cool assessment of the situation.
To read the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
