Bitcoin has once again found itself at a point that historically evoked strong emotions and extreme opinions. Marek Stiller, in his latest analysis, explains why the current boredom and uncertainty often appeared just before a bull market. At the same time, he emphasizes that this is a moment requiring a cool head and risk management.
The crypto market is entering a phase where macro data begins to hold more significance than short-term emotions.
Market at a crossroads and signals from the past
Marek Stiller describes the current situation as one of the most psychologically challenging for investors. The market is sluggish, and volatility has dropped to levels known from August 2024 and April 2025. Back then, after a few weeks, a rebound would occur, but today there is no such certainty.
The analyst points out the classic 4-year cyclicality. The Fed after previous ATH often led to longer bear markets, reminiscent of the setup from 2021–2022. Such a pattern suggests even 12 months of declines and a so-called 'dead cat bounce.'
At the same time, Stiller reminds us that history is rarely that straightforward. Previous cycles did not occur with such a rapid change in monetary policy. Therefore, the current moment is difficult to classify unequivocally as the beginning of a bear market.
Fed, liquidity, and Bitcoin in the spotlight
A key element of Stiller's analysis is the Federal Reserve's policy. The Fed ended QT, lowered rates, and from December 12 is launching the RMP program. Monthly asset purchases range from 40 to 55 billion USD.
According to Stiller, the three previous expansions of the Fed's balance sheet have always ended in bull markets for Bitcoin. This was not a random correlation, but the effect of increasing liquidity in the financial system. Capital was then looking for assets with limited supply.
The analyst estimates that by April 2026, the market could receive as much as 200 billion USD of new liquidity. Such an impulse has often led to short squeezes and dynamic increases. Additionally, the new head of the Fed, likely Kevin Hassett from May 2026, favors looser policy.
Defensive strategy in times of uncertainty in crypto
Stiller does not hide that he himself does not put everything on one scenario. His strategy is based on capital protection and flexibility. This approach is particularly important for beginner investors.
In practice, his portfolio looks as follows:
60–65% in stablecoins as a hedge against a bear market
35% in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and selected altcoins
short-term leveraged positions only with clear signals
The analyst emphasizes that such a structure allows for peaceful sleep. Even if the market drops, there is capital left for additional purchases. If a bull market appears, exposure to increases still exists.
The market is at a crossroads - the cyclicality suggests waiting for a bear market, but the Fed is starting to print (RMP since December) and historically this has always ended in a bull market; I play it safe - most in stable, the rest in crypto, ready for both scenarios.
This approach shows that investing is not about guessing the future. The key is risk management and preparation for various scenarios.
What else supports a bullish scenario for Bitcoin
Stiller also points to the actions of the largest players. Michael Saylor recently made a purchase of over 10,000 BTC. This is the largest transaction since July and at the same time a signal of long-term confidence.
MicroStrategy is also building a reserve of 1.5 billion USD in dollars. These funds are intended to cover 18 months of debt servicing and dividends. The company declares no sale of BTC even in a bear market.
Additionally, Tom Lee is accumulating Ethereum through BitMine, already controlling almost 4% of the supply. ETFs on BTC and ETH are again recording inflows exceeding 200 million USD on the day of FOMC. BlackRock is preparing staking in the ETF on ETH, which could increase the attractiveness of the market.
Does this mean a certain bull market? Stiller answers calmly. Historical data is favorable, but the market always has the ability to surprise. Therefore, it's better to be prepared than overly confident.
As a result, his analysis boils down to a simple conclusion. Bitcoin is in a zone that in the past often preceded strong increases. At the same time, the risk of a bear market still exists, so prudence remains key.
To read the latest analysis of the cryptocurrency market from BeInCrypto, click here.
