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零下二度
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This week, do not exit the short position no matter what, patiently waiting for the super waterfall. Within 5-8 days.
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零下二度
@lingxiaerdu1314
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很多人都笃定4年一轮的熊牛周期定律被打破,我从不这么看。从月线级别以上的大趋势看,10月中旬后就已经入熊,2022年到达15600后一路反弹的这轮牛市完全结束,而不是阶段性结束。熊市并非代表天天跌,而是高点不断在下移。“大趋势”这个东西一旦既定,神都扭转不了,只有当它最大级别的macd指标运行到归零轴或在零轴下筑底再才会慢慢上来形成新一轮牛市周期。这就是周期性的运行规律,不是减减息,短线上几个主力拉一拉弹一弹就能反转。就像万物运行皆有定律,冥冥之中自有主宰。 下周末之前可能产生本月最低点,预计也是2025年封顶126200后的最低点。不论本次低点是78800还是74666,这次抄底跟11月先后产生的两个低点:88800、80600一样,我认为也是阶段性的底部,而不是本次熊市周期的最低点。不过这个抄底能吃一个月左右,所以前几天我说这段行情一下一上再下再上相当于4段行情如果抓住两段的话,你就可以过个好年或肥年。
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今天反弹接的空,再要多拿一下。还要加速下跌。
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三种方法锁定本月btc大回调的抄底点: A、目前处于45日线调整周期中的20日调整范围内,boll底部80085附近。20日ema52,对应价格74965。所以8w跌破后锁定抄底:74965 B、45日线级别死叉,boll中轨77250。 C、45日线这个级别回调0.618的位置: 126208-48888 = 77,320 77320*0.618 = 47,783.76 126208-47783 = 78,425(回调的黄金分割点) ps:再加上今年4月7日的最低点74666,它很接近20日ema52。所以可以预判12月抄底范围可以锁定:78425、77250、74666这三个点位。
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sol今晚跌到了126.25,这还不是波段最低点。前两天说了现在下跌的起跌点是140.09,这个波段的最低点在124/123附近(如果有小针,溢出到121.25附近),弱势盘这里一般也能反弹7-9个点,即到130.45-133.25。 风险提示:未来10天内btc准备跌破8w后,sol 的100关口将面临扎破风险。
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eth 3000 如果第一次跌破,止盈点就是2982、2936。会收上去一次。
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