Recommendation 1: US (Talus Network) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Operational Suggestions: Entry price is recommended in the range of $0.01275 to $0.01280 (near current price or slightly rebounding to the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line). Target prices are divided into three levels: the first level is $0.01221 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower line, a drop of about 4.5%), the second level is $0.0124 (liquidation cluster area, a drop of about 3.1%), and the third level is $0.0109 (bottom of the deep liquidation cluster, a drop of about 14.7%). The stop-loss price is set at $0.01328 (stop-loss range of about +3.9%, located above the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line, to prevent oversold rebound breakout). Risk-reward ratio (R:R) is about 3.77 (based on the first target) to an excellent level (based on the third target), which is considered a high win rate setup. Suggested position allocation is 35-40% of capital, with leverage kept within 2 times to prevent extreme volatility liquidation.
Fundamental valuation data: The current price is $0.01278. The market cap is $28.35M, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $128.85M, and an FDV/MC ratio of 4.55, indicating overvaluation characteristics. The circulating supply is 2.2 billion tokens (22% of the total supply of 10 billion), meaning 78% of the tokens are still locked. VC financing exceeds $10M, with major investors including Polychain Capital (leading with $9M), Animoca Brands, Foresight Ventures, and Sui Foundation ($1M). Perpetual contracts have been launched on five major exchanges, including Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, and Aster, providing ample short liquidity support.
On-chain token economics: The project is based on the Sui blockchain, with the contract address 0xee962a61432231c2ede6946515beb02290cb516ad087bb06a731e922b2a5f57a::us::US. The total supply is fixed at 10 billion US tokens, with no inflation mechanism. The Token Generation Event (TGE) occurred on December 12, 2025, with an initial circulation of 2.2 billion tokens. Although the percentage of on-chain top 10 holders cannot be precisely identified, the distribution structure shows a high concentration among VCs (20.5% for Polychain, etc.), the team (22%), and the foundation (20%). The current total number of holders is 1,020, indicating early-stage concentration.
Unlock pressure timeline: Starting from the TGE, community and ecosystem allocation (30%, approximately 3 billion tokens) and foundation allocation (20%, approximately 2 billion tokens) enter the linear unlocking phase. Within the next 90 days (until March 14, 2026), the community ecosystem will unlock approximately 25M US tokens per month, and the foundation will unlock approximately 16.67M US tokens per month, totaling about 125M tokens unlocked monthly (accounting for 1.25% of the total supply, and 5.7% of the circulating supply). Although the main cliff lock-up period for the team and investors is 12 months (until December 2026), the current linear release has already formed continuous selling pressure.
Technical short signal: The 1-hour timeframe shows the price at $0.01278, below the EMA12 ($0.01353), EMA26 ($0.01467), and SMA50 ($0.01648), forming a multi-period bearish structure. The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band ($0.01221), indicating downward pressure. The RSI(14) is 24.61, in a deeply oversold area, although there is a risk of a technical rebound, the confirmation of strong downward momentum remains. The MACD indicator shows the MACD line (-0.00109) below the signal line (-0.00108), with a histogram of -0.00001, forming a bearish crossover with negative momentum contraction. The ADX(14) is 49.34, confirming a strong downward trend. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) is -4.32B, with declining volume supporting the bearish price trend.
Derivatives market data: The total open interest (OI) for futures is $9.96M, with a 24-hour change of +11.69%, indicating that leverage is increasing during the price decline, which usually signals that over-leveraged long positions face liquidation risks. The funding rates are positive across major exchanges: Binance at +0.000295%, BingX at +0.0023%, Bitget/Bybit/Gate all at +0.005%, and KuCoin as high as +0.0478%. Positive funding rates mean that longs pay fees to shorts, reflecting an overheated state for longs, providing a cost advantage for shorting. The 24-hour liquidation data shows a total liquidation amount of $613K, with long position liquidations at $512K (accounting for 83.6%), and short position liquidations at $101K, confirming bearish pressure with a long position-dominated liquidation pattern.
Clearing cluster analysis: There is a significant long position clearing cluster below the current price of $0.01278. At the price level of $0.0125, there is a cumulative clearing volume of $24K, at $0.0124, there is a cumulative $64K, at $0.0123, there is a cumulative $106K, extending to a cumulative $238K at the price level of $0.0109. If the price breaks below the key support level, it will trigger a chain clearing effect, accelerating the downward trend. These clearing clusters provide clear downside targets and risk-reward ratio support for shorting.
Fundamental weaknesses: As a newly launched Move virtual machine Layer 1 AI agent project, US lacks actual TVL (total value locked) data, making it impossible to verify the actual adoption of the protocol. The MC/TVL ratio is undefined and may far exceed the 0.5 threshold, meeting the 'weak fundamentals' standard. The project only completed the launch of spot and perpetual contracts on December 11-12, and has not yet established a moat. The background of Polychain Capital as a major supporter increases the risk of VC sell-offs, especially considering Polychain's low-cost basis in the seed round.
Social sentiment observation: As of December 14, 2025, UTC, the narrative around US tokens on Twitter/X primarily revolves around airdrop claims and the hype surrounding staking launches. Community discussions are focused on giveaway activities and whitelist partnerships, lacking in-depth analysis or skeptical viewpoints from high-quality KOLs. The staking mechanism mentions penalties reduced due to poor performance, but presents it as a core feature rather than a criticism point. There have been no complaints about VC sell-offs, unlocking schedules, or airdrop fairness. Compared to CYS (which has reward distribution disputes) and PIEVERSE (which has opaque token economics), US's social buzz leans more towards a positive atmosphere typical of early promotional stages, but this lack of critical voices often signifies a rapid cooling risk after the hype subsides.
