The price of Bitcoin seems stagnant at first glance. Over the past 24 hours, the price has remained relatively stable, declining by only 0.2%. Even on a weekly basis, Bitcoin has hardly moved, increasing by about 0.7%. The market feels quiet, and many traders refer to this period as a narrow range movement.
However, if you look closely, you will find that many signals indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) is not as weak as it appears. The driving momentum is slowly changing, sellers are losing confidence, and large holders are quietly adjusting their positions. These factors explain why the bullish forecast from experts like Tom Lee has not faded away, even without a breakout occurring.
Momentum and volume signals are quietly improving.
On the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin continues to respect the level of 90,100 USD, which has become a strong base amid volatility, proving to prevent a more significant decline. Even though the price has not yet been able to move higher.
One of the first clear signals is the On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether trading volume is flowing into or out of an asset, helping to indicate hidden buying or selling pressure.
During the period from December 9 to December 11, the price of Bitcoin made new lower highs while the OBV made new higher highs. This divergence reflects that even as prices pull back, buyers are still actively moving below the market surface.
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This signal strengthened during the period from December 10 to December 12. During that time, the price of Bitcoin made a new lower low, but the OBV made a new higher low. This tells the same story from a new angle: even as sellers push prices down, support from volume is beginning to wane.
Both Divergence signals from OBV complement each other; they do not contradict. Together, they indicate that selling pressure is decreasing, not increasing. Although a breakout has not yet been confirmed, such signals often occur before a breakout.
Holders of coin and whales are adjusting their portfolios even as the USD price remains stable
Even though the driving signals are important, they are not enough. On-chain data provides further confirmation, with the Holder Net Position Change metric tracking whether long-term holders are increasing or decreasing their Bitcoin positions. A negative value indicates selling, and if the negative value decreases, it means selling pressure is starting to ease.
On December 10, long-term holders were selling approximately 155,999 BTC, and by December 13, that number had decreased to around 150,614 BTC, representing a reduction in selling pressure of about 3.4%.
This change may not be very clear, but it is significant. Bitcoin is not facing a panic selling situation, even as it moves within a price range. Conversely, holders are selling less as the price begins to stabilize reasonably. This behavior often occurs during accumulation phases, not during sharp declines.
The most prominent signals come from the whales. The number of holders with at least 1,000 BTC remains close to a six-month high, reflecting long-term investors.
Since the end of October, the price of Bitcoin has undergone a consolidation and moved sideways. Throughout that same period, the whale group has continued to accumulate, leading to a clear divergence where prices have weakened while large holders continue to accumulate coins, and they typically do not accumulate without good reason.
This behavior helps explain why the positive price forecast for Bitcoin by analysts like Tom Lee remains intact.
These forecasts are not tied to the daily chart but consider decreasing selling volume, improved volume structure, and ongoing accumulation by whales. Nonetheless, the price of Bitcoin still needs to confirm this hypothesis.
The price level of Bitcoin that determines whether the bulls will dominate the market or not
Therefore, if Bitcoin is to turn these signals into concrete movements, confirmation from the price is necessary.
The most critical level remains at USD94,600. A daily close above this zone would represent an approximate 5% increase from the current levels and would be considered a breakout above the upper edge of the currently pressured price range. This would signal that buyers have regained control in the short term.
If the level of 94,600 USD is breached, the next resistance is near 99,800 USD. If it can hold above that level continuously, it will open the path to 107,500 USD if overall market conditions are favorable. This could become the first significant factor supporting Tom Lee's bullish outlook at the level of 180,000 USD, as mentioned earlier.
Conversely, if the price of Bitcoin drops below 90,000 USD, support will be around 89,200 USD. Further down, the level of 87,500 USD will become a critical point. If the price falls below this area, it would invalidate the bullish structure at least in the short term.
