Bitcoin's price appears stagnant at first glance. Over the last 24 hours, the price has remained nearly unchanged, dropping only 0.2%. Also, on a weekly basis, Bitcoin has moved little, up about 0.7%. The market has a quiet mood, and many traders describe this as being stuck in a range.
However, beneath the surface, there are several signs that Bitcoin (BTC) is not as weak as it appears. The trend is slowly changing, sellers' confidence is waning, and large holders continue to cautiously position themselves. These factors together explain why price increase forecasts for Bitcoin made by experts like Tom Lee have not disappeared, even though a clear breakthrough has not been seen.
Sentiment and volume signals are gradually improving
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price still respects the $90,100 level. This area has acted as a stable base during recent volatility and has prevented deeper dips, even though the price has not managed to rise higher.
One of the clearest early signs comes from the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of the asset and helps identify underlying buying or selling pressure.
Between December 9 and 11, Bitcoin's price formed a lower peak, while OBV made a higher peak. This contradiction shows that even though the price was under pressure, buyers were active behind the scenes.
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The signal was confirmed between December 10 and 12. During this time, Bitcoin's price dropped lower, but OBV formed a higher low. This indicates the same thing from a different perspective: sellers pushed the price lower, but volume support was weak.
These two OBV contradictions complement each other. Together, they indicate that selling pressure is easing, not increasing. This is not yet a confirmation of a breakthrough, but such a situation often precedes it.
Holders and whales in position despite stable price
Mood indicators alone are not enough. Blockchain data provides confirmation. The Holder Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are increasing or decreasing their Bitcoin positions. Negative values indicate selling. As the number of negative values decreases, selling pressure eases.
On December 10, long-term holders sold about 155,999 BTC. By December 13, the amount had decreased to about 150,614 BTC. This is about a 3.4% drop in selling pressure.
The change is not dramatic, but it matters. There has been no panic selling of Bitcoin, even though the price moves within a range. Investors sell less when the price stabilizes. This behavior is typical in a consolidation phase, not during a downturn.
The strongest signal comes from “whales.” The number of entities holding over 1,000 BTC is still close to a six-month high. This metric often reflects large, long-term investors.
Since the end of October, Bitcoin's price has decreased and moved sideways. During the same time, whale entities continued their purchases. This is a clear contradiction. The price weakened, but large holders accumulated more. They rarely increase their positions without good reason.
This behavior helps to understand why forecasts for Bitcoin's rise from analysts like Tom Lee remain prominent.
These forecasts are not based on short-term candles. Behind them are decreasing sales, improving volume structure, and a steady buying pace from whale owners. Still, Bitcoin's price needs to confirm these expectations.
Bitcoin price levels that determine whether bulls take control
For Bitcoin to turn these signals into actions, price confirmation is necessary.
The key level remains $94,600. A daily close above this area would represent about a 5% increase from the current level and would break the upper limit of the current squeeze zone. This would allow buyers to regain short-term control.
If $94,600 is broken, the next resistance level is near $99,800. If the price remains above this level, the path to $107,500 may open up, provided that broader market conditions support it. This could be the first significant catalyst for Tom Lee's previously mentioned $180,000 outlook.
On the downside, if Bitcoin's price falls below $90,000, support is found around $89,200. Below this, the next significant level is $87,500. If these levels are breached, the bulls' position will be nullified at least in the short term.
