Friends, the grand performance of the Federal Reserve last week has just come to an end. The market hasn't caught its breath yet, but we need to turn our attention to this week. There are a few things that may quietly influence the upcoming rhythm.
On Tuesday evening (21:30), we will see the first timely non-farm payroll data in two months. The significance of this report lies not in how pretty or ugly the numbers are, but in its first real test of what the U.S. economy is like after the interest rate cut this week. The market sentiment needs this anchor point.
Immediately following, on Thursday evening (21:30), the more critical CPI inflation data will be released. If the non-farm report looks at physical strength, then CPI looks at body temperature. Having just taken the medicine of an interest rate cut, whether inflation's body temperature has truly stabilized will directly determine whether the market begins to doubt if "the medicine was too strong."
Secondly, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates on Friday. However, this has been speculated for a long time, and the expectations have long been digested. Perhaps, when the shoe drops, the market can actually breathe a sigh of relief, shifting from bearish to bullish. What if…
Additionally, a few signals from the market itself also need to be noted.
The AI sector has been feeling a bit under the weather lately, with Broadcom's pullback and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields putting pressure on it. Next week, the focus isn't on its immediate recovery but rather on observing any signs of stabilization, which will determine whether the most active funds dare to return.
Gold and silver are shining brightly, one hovering at historical highs and the other having already set a new high. Behind this is the logic of seeking safety in turbulent times and the dual narrative of resisting currency depreciation. With positions high, short-term volatility may intensify, so be prepared mentally.
Finally, don't forget the calendar effect. As the end of the year approaches, Wall Street managers also have to submit their reports. To lock in annual profits and make year-end performance look better, they often tend to reduce positions and seek stability. If macro data next week is not strong, the market may enter a phase of overall weakness and converging volatility, reminiscent of garbage time. In short, this week the market will shift from a narrative of excitement over interest rate cuts to a calm assessment of economic reality. We need to look at the data, read the room, and understand the little thoughts of year-end funds. Stay steady; the road is still long.
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